The antitrust trial targeting Google's search business is nearing its conclusion, and the implications could reshape the future of the tech giant and the web as a whole. With the Department of Justice (DOJ) scrutinizing Google’s practices, the company is facing mounting pressure to defend its market position amid growing competition from artificial intelligence (AI) tools.
On May 7, 2025, Apple’s Senior Vice President of Services, Eddie Cue, testified that search traffic on Safari, Apple's web browser, had fallen for the first time in 22 years. Cue attributed this decline to a shift in user behavior, with more people opting for AI-driven search solutions instead of traditional Google searches. This revelation sent shockwaves through the market, causing Google’s stock to plummet by 7%, wiping roughly $155 billion off Alphabet's market capitalization.
During the trial, Cue expressed concerns about the potential loss of Google’s search deal, which is a significant revenue source for Apple. The agreement allows Google to be the default search engine on Safari in exchange for substantial payments to Apple. The DOJ argues that such arrangements are anticompetitive and has proposed remedies that would ban Google from these types of contracts.
In response to Cue's testimony, Google issued a rare public statement on May 8, 2025, disputing the notion that it is losing its monopoly. The company claimed, “We continue to see overall query growth in Search. That includes an increase in total queries coming from Apple’s devices and platforms.” This assertion, however, did not quell the concerns of investors who are increasingly wary of AI's impact on Google's search dominance.
Cue's testimony highlighted that the drop in search volume on Safari occurred in April, coinciding with a growing trend of users favoring AI tools like ChatGPT and Claude over traditional search engines. This shift, Cue noted, could lead to significant changes in how users interact with search engines in the future. As Apple explores integrating AI features into Safari, the competitive landscape for search engines is rapidly evolving.
Despite the alarming news for Google, analysts from Jeffries advised caution regarding the market reaction. They emphasized that while Safari holds 17% of the global market share, Google Chrome still commands a dominant 66%. Additionally, daily active users of the Google app on iOS have increased by 15% year over year, indicating that fears of a mass exodus from Google may be overstated.
Google’s revenue from its search business remains robust, with a reported 10% growth in the first quarter of 2025. The company has also been adapting to the changing market by incorporating AI-powered features into its search product, which are monetized at rates comparable to traditional search results. This adaptability suggests that Google is not merely resting on its laurels but actively responding to emerging trends.
In the midst of this turmoil, the relationship between Google and Apple is under close scrutiny. Analysts have pointed out that Apple receives billions from Google to maintain its status as the default search engine on Safari, a partnership that has been crucial to Google's market strength. However, as reports surface indicating that Apple may be developing its own AI-powered search capabilities, the future of this relationship remains uncertain.
The ongoing antitrust trial is not just about Google; it reflects a broader concern regarding the power of large tech companies and their influence over the digital landscape. As AI continues to reshape user interactions with technology, the implications for search engines could be profound. Google has been investing heavily in its own AI capabilities, aware that the competition from AI engines poses a significant threat to its traditional business model.
Industry insiders have noted that Google's public rebuttal of the declining search traffic reports suggests the company is acutely aware of the stakes involved. Any significant downturn in search traffic could raise alarms among investors about Google's long-term growth prospects. The search giant's business model relies heavily on advertising revenue generated from search queries, making it essential for Google to maintain its user base.
As the trial progresses, the outcome could set a precedent for how tech companies operate in the future. The DOJ is pushing for changes that could limit Google's ability to secure exclusive contracts that have historically bolstered its market dominance. If successful, these measures could open the door for increased competition in the search engine market.
For now, Google remains steadfast in its assertion that it continues to grow and innovate despite the challenges posed by AI and changing user preferences. The company’s commitment to enhancing its search capabilities with AI features is a clear indication that it is not willing to relinquish its position without a fight.
As the tech landscape evolves, both Google and Apple will need to navigate these waters carefully. The potential for AI to disrupt traditional search methods is real, and both companies are exploring ways to adapt to this new reality. Whether Google can maintain its search dominance in the face of these challenges remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the stakes are high.
