Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a challenging landscape in 2025 as it struggles to maintain its status as a safe asset. Recent data from Bank of America (BoA) reveals that funds flowing into gold have surged dramatically, reaching $800 billion year-to-date. This information was shared on April 15, 2025, by the trading information account Kobeissi Letter on X, highlighting that gold has experienced its "longest rally" since 2013.
As gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) set new records, Bitcoin ETFs are witnessing significant capital outflows. Investors are shifting their funds towards gold due to macroeconomic uncertainties exacerbated by escalating trade tensions in the U.S., diminishing Bitcoin's appeal as an alternative asset.
According to TradingView, the dollar-denominated price of gold reached a historic high of approximately $3300 per ounce on April 16, 2025. Kobeissi Letter noted that "net inflows into gold funds have reached $800 billion year-to-date, which is equivalent to twice the full year of 2020." The letter further emphasized that "as market uncertainty skyrockets, investors are pouring money into gold at an unprecedented pace. As a result, gold prices are up 22% year-to-date, outperforming all other major asset classes."
In stark contrast, Bitcoin's price trajectory has been less favorable. Despite the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and advancements in global adoption, BTC/USD hit a five-month low in early April 2025. Data from Glassnode, an on-chain analysis platform, indicates that the total assets under management for all Bitcoin ETFs have plummeted from $1060 billion at the start of the year to $920 billion this week.
Kobeissi Letter pointed out that "gold prices have updated their past highs 52 times in the past year, marking the longest record in 12 years." Veteran trader Peter Brandt commented on X that "gold has now entered a blow-off top (a rapid decline phase after a rapid rally)." He added that "such rapid rises will eventually reach a ceiling. However, attempts to pinpoint that high are costly. The blow-off top could extend to the point where the weak hands can no longer meet margin calls."
Some market participants believe that the ongoing surge in gold prices may soon come to an end. Brandt noted, "This rapid increase will ultimately lead to a peak, but trying to determine that peak can be expensive. The blow-off top may last until weaker investors are forced to exit."
Interestingly, the potential decline of gold could create an opportunity for Bitcoin to rebound. There is a growing theory that BTC/USD tends to follow gold's movements with a delay of several months. This scenario is gaining traction among analysts.
Anthony Pompliano, founder of Professional Capital Management, shared insights in a CNBC interview on April 15, 2025, stating, "The reason is not clear why traditional financial institutions are not ready to accept Bitcoin as a hedge asset against macroeconomic uncertainty, or perhaps they are not used to that idea." He added, "What we do know is that when gold rises, Bitcoin usually not only follows it about 100 days later but usually rises even more. In other words, it moves with that much higher volatility."
On April 16, 2025, gold spot prices broke through $3300 per ounce for the first time in trading, marking a new record high driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating trade wars. The spot price temporarily rose to $3317.90 before settling at $3314.29, up 2.7%, while New York gold futures increased by 2.8% to $3330.30.
Ole Hansen, commodity strategy officer at Saxo Bank, commented, "President Trump has ordered investigations into key minerals, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, and there is no sign that the trade war will ease. Funds are again turning from stocks to safe-haven assets." He also noted that "several major financial institutions have recently raised their outlook for gold prices, and a sense of security in buying is spreading among investors." On April 16, ANZ raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3600 and its six-month forecast to $3500.
As the global economic landscape shifts, the dollar index has also fallen by 0.5%, further supporting gold prices. This combination of factors has led to a renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, particularly as concerns over a global recession continue to mount.
In a broader context, the gold market has seen a significant rise, with prices increasing over 20% since the beginning of the year. This surge is attributed to the unpredictable nature of tariff announcements and the ongoing trade war, which has left investors wary of taking long-term positions in stocks.
On April 16, gold prices in Hai Duong province also reflected the global trend, with major trading brands like Bao Tin Manh Hai, Doji, and PNJ listing gold bar prices with buying prices ranging from 111.17 million to 111.2 million VND/tael and selling prices from 111.39 million to 111.45 million VND/tael. The continuous increase in prices has allowed traders to potentially earn significant profits in a short period. For instance, buying SJC gold bars in the morning and selling them in the afternoon could yield a maximum profit of 4 million VND per tael, marking the highest and fastest spread in SJC gold trading in at least the past two years.
Experts indicate that while gold rings are often traded close to market prices, their quality can vary significantly depending on the reputation of the business selling them. Therefore, gold rings typically maintain their value only when sold through reputable brands.
As the year progresses, the gold market is poised to remain dynamic, influenced by both domestic and international factors. Investors are advised to remain vigilant and informed, as the landscape continues to evolve with the ongoing economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.
