Gold prices have once again taken center stage in global financial markets, as the week ending October 12, 2025, delivered some of the most dramatic movements seen since the start of the year. According to Kitco, the global gold price was listed at 4,016 USD per ounce on the morning of October 12, holding steady from the previous day. This apparent calm, however, belies a week of intense volatility, driven largely by renewed geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, particularly the latest developments in U.S.-China trade relations.
The catalyst for the recent surge in gold prices was a forceful statement from U.S. President Donald Trump on October 10, 2025. As reported by multiple outlets, Trump declared the United States would impose an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, effective November 1 or possibly even sooner. This dramatic move, reminiscent of the tariff hikes that rattled global markets in April 2025, immediately sent shockwaves across financial sectors. Investors, already on edge due to ongoing political and economic risks, flocked to gold as a classic safe-haven asset.
"There could be a short-term correction after gold prices have risen so quickly, but the medium-term outlook still leans upward," said Hamad Hussain, a commodity economist at Capital Economics, as quoted by CafeF. His perspective echoes a widespread sentiment in the market: while the recent rally may be due for a pause, the underlying forces propelling gold upward remain firmly in place.
The numbers bear out this story. Over the past week, spot gold prices increased by 2.7%, according to VietnamPlus and other sources. Notably, gold broke through the historic 4,000 USD per ounce threshold not once, but twice, underscoring the intensity of investor demand for security in uncertain times. The trading week was described by analysts as one of the most active and volatile since early 2025, with October 10 standing out as a day of especially sharp price swings following Trump's tariff announcement.
The U.S. dollar, often seen as gold's main competitor for safe-haven status, weakened by 0.5% on October 10, further enhancing gold's appeal to investors holding other currencies. As a result, the rush into gold was not limited to the United States. Investors worldwide, wary of an escalating trade war and the specter of a global economic slowdown, sought refuge in the precious metal.
Domestic gold markets, particularly in Vietnam, mirrored these international trends—albeit with their own local flavor. At 6:00 AM on October 12, gold bars from leading local brands such as Doji and SJC were quoted between 140.8 and 142.8 million VND per tael, up by 600,000 VND from the previous morning, as reported by CafeF and VietnamPlus. Other major retailers, including Phu Quy and Mi Hong Jewelry Company, also posted similar increases, reflecting broad-based upward momentum in the domestic market.
Gold jewelry, such as the 9999 Hưng Thịnh Vượng ring at Doji, was listed at 136.8 to 139.8 million VND per tael, up 300,000 VND per tael compared to the day before. However, not all price movements were in the same direction. Bao Tin Minh Chau, for instance, listed gold rings at 138 to 141 million VND per tael, down 200,000 VND from the previous day—demonstrating the nuanced interplay of local supply and demand dynamics.
Internationally, the price of gold at 4:30 AM on October 12 was recorded at 4,012.81 USD per ounce, up 0.09% from the previous day. When converted using the prevailing exchange rate of 26,776 VND per USD, this equated to approximately 129.5 million VND per tael, not accounting for taxes and fees. This calculation revealed a striking fact: domestic SJC gold prices were about 13.3 million VND per tael higher than their international counterparts, highlighting a persistent premium for physical gold in the Vietnamese market.
What is fueling such a robust appetite for gold? The answer, according to analysts cited by VietnamPlus and CafeF, lies in a perfect storm of risk factors. The renewed threat of a U.S.-China trade war has heightened fears of global recession and financial instability. Memories of the severe economic turmoil of April 2025 are still fresh, and many investors are not willing to take chances. As a result, the flight to safety has become a defining feature of this year's gold market.
Financial institutions are taking notice. Major players such as UBS and Goldman Sachs have raised their gold price forecasts, with some projecting the metal could reach between 4,500 and 5,000 USD per ounce in the coming year. These bullish predictions are based on continued inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and robust central bank purchases. Both trends have been prominent in 2025, as institutions and governments alike seek to hedge against currency volatility and geopolitical shocks.
Yet, not everyone is convinced that gold's ascent will be uninterrupted. After a staggering rise of more than 50% this year, some market experts are warning of a possible technical correction. According to VietnamPlus, certain forecasts suggest that gold prices could fall by as much as 10%—potentially declining to around 3,600 USD per ounce—before resuming their upward march. Such a correction, they argue, would be a healthy response to the rapid gains witnessed over recent months.
Despite these cautionary notes, the prevailing mood remains upbeat among gold bulls. The combination of persistent geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and a weakening dollar continues to underpin strong demand for gold. As the world watches the evolving U.S.-China trade saga, the precious metal is likely to remain a barometer of global anxiety—and, for many, a crucial store of value.
With gold prices holding steady above the 4,000 USD per ounce mark and domestic markets reflecting even higher premiums, both institutional and retail investors are keeping a close eye on the next moves from Washington and Beijing. The interplay between policy announcements, market sentiment, and global risk factors will determine whether gold continues its historic run or pauses for breath in the coming weeks.
For now, the story of gold in October 2025 is one of resilience, uncertainty, and the timeless allure of safety in a world that feels increasingly unpredictable.
