Gold prices surged to unprecedented highs on Wednesday, April 16, 2025, as a combination of a weakened dollar, escalating trade tensions, and growing concerns over global economic stability drove demand for the safe-haven asset. In Dubai, the price of 24-carat gold increased by AED5.25 to reach AED394.50 per gram, while 22-carat gold rose by AED5 to settle at AED365.25. Additionally, 21-carat gold experienced a rise of AED4.5, reaching AED350.00, and 18-carat gold edged up AED4.25 to attain AED300.25.
Spot gold climbed 1.3 percent to $3,270.12 per ounce as of 03:19 GMT, having previously touched a peak of $3,275.20 during the session. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures rose by 1.4 percent, reaching $3,286.30. According to Reuters, Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, stated, "A confluence of factors such as dollar depreciation and ongoing risk aversion are working in gold’s favour." The dollar index declined by 0.4 percent against its counterparts, making gold more appealing to holders of other currencies.
The escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China have further complicated the situation. Nvidia announced on April 15 that it would incur $5.5 billion in charges following U.S. government restrictions on exports of its H20 artificial intelligence chip to China. In retaliation, China has instructed its airlines to halt any further deliveries of Boeing jets, following the U.S. imposing a 145 percent tariff on Chinese goods. Brian Lan, managing director at Singapore-based dealer GoldSilver Central, commented, "Gold will continue to be strong as long as there’s uncertainty."
This year, gold has reached several record highs, boasting an increase of over 24 percent thus far in 2025. Analysts at ANZ have raised the bank’s year-end gold price forecast to $3,600 per ounce, with a six-month forecast of $3,500. Investors are now eagerly awaiting U.S. retail sales data, which is set to be released later today, as it may provide insights into the economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. Traders currently anticipate approximately 87 basis points of Fed rate reductions by the end of 2025.
In related markets, spot silver rose 0.1 percent to $32.32 per ounce, while platinum dipped 0.3 percent to $956.64, and palladium remained steady at $971.10.
The Dubai Gold Rate has just hit a new all-time high of AED365.25 for a gram of 22k, following a surge of AED6.75 a gram over yesterday’s rate of AED358.50 on April 15. The lowest point for the Dubai gold price in the last 30 days was AED335.25 on March 21, showing a remarkable rise of AED30 since then. A local jewellery retailer noted, "These days, there is no such thing as global commodity prices remaining within a certain range over a day. A change of $10-$50 on an ounce basis is happening every few hours, which is reflected in the Dubai gold rate too."
As the Indian festival of ‘Akshaya Trithiya’ approaches on April 30, concerns are mounting among jewellers regarding whether the usual number of shoppers will turn up in UAE gold stores this year. A jeweller expressed, "Some have pre-booked to lock prices, but the vast majority were hoping they would get some price break before April 30." However, they are not seeing that price drop today.
In the domestic market, gold and silver settled on a mixed note, but on a positive note in international markets. On April 15, gold June futures contracts settled at Rs 93,451 per 10 grams with a gain of 0.21%, while silver May futures contracts settled at Rs 94,774 per kilogram with a loss of 0.10%. The Chinese government has also stopped buying Boeing aircraft from the U.S. and has ceased purchasing spare parts for aircraft, further adding to the volatility in gold prices.
Globally, gold was trading at $3,287.63 per ounce, up 2 percent at 9.10 am UAE time, driven by concerns over the global tariff war and a weaker dollar. Linh Tran, a market analyst at xs.com, said, "The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China is a key factor supporting gold prices." President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs of up to 145 percent on Chinese goods, prompting China to retaliate with tariffs of 125 percent on U.S. products.
As of April 16, gold rates jumped to a fresh all-time high of ₹94,840 per 10 grams in the domestic futures market, with MCX Gold rates increasing over ₹1,000, or more than 1 percent, per 10 grams in early trading. Comex Gold jumped nearly 2 percent to hit $3,294.60 per troy ounce. Economic uncertainty has increased safe-haven demand among investors, driving gold prices higher.
The dollar index declined by about half a percent during the session, making gold cheaper in other currencies and enhancing its demand. Increasing rate cut hopes, following a significant decline in inflation in both India and the U.S., are also supporting gold prices. India's retail inflation eased in March 2025 to the lowest level since August 2019, rising by 3.34 percent annually, which is lower than the 3.61 percent registered in February.
In the U.S., the consumer price index (CPI) cooled to 2.4 percent in March from a year ago. Investors' focus is now on U.S. retail sales data due later today, which will offer fresh insights into the world's largest economy and shape expectations about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research expects gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week, given the ongoing fluctuations in the dollar index and the U.S.-China trade war.
In conclusion, gold's robust performance amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty highlights its status as a safe-haven asset, with prices likely to remain under upward pressure in the near future.
