On April 16, 2025, the global financial landscape is witnessing significant shifts as the U.S. dollar weakens and risks associated with U.S. tax policies are driving up demand for gold, a traditional safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty. This surge in gold prices comes amid fluctuating oil prices and concerns over the impact of trade policies on the global economy.
As of 4:00 AM Vietnam time, the world gold price has reached 3,222.76 USD per ounce, marking a 1.36% increase from the previous day. When converted at the free market exchange rate of 26,063 VND/USD, the gold price stands at approximately 101.2 million VND per tael, excluding taxes and fees. Notably, the price of SJC gold bars in Vietnam is currently 6.8 million VND per tael higher than the international gold price.
The increase in gold prices is largely attributed to safe-haven demand following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of new tax plans, which have left investors cautious about trade policies. Jim Wyckoff, a senior analyst at Kitco Metals, stated, "Traders are waiting for more significant fundamental factors to guide the gold market, but the charts still show an upward trend. Safe-haven demand remains strong."
Additionally, a document published in the U.S. Federal Register on Monday indicated that the U.S. government is advancing investigations into the import of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, with the intention of imposing tariffs. President Trump announced that he would reveal the tariff rates on semiconductor imports next week. Gold, seen as a safe investment during periods of political and financial instability, has surged over 23% since the start of 2025, consistently hitting record highs.
Commerzbank noted that the rise in gold prices is partly due to the ongoing weakness of the U.S. dollar, which is losing its position as a safe-haven asset. This decline in the dollar makes gold more appealing to investors holding other currencies. Currently, the dollar is trading near its lowest point in three years against other major currencies, further enhancing gold's attractiveness.
Financial markets are anticipating that the U.S. Federal Reserve will resume interest rate cuts in June after a pause in January, with a total reduction expected to reach 100 basis points this year. Investors are keenly awaiting remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for additional clues regarding the interest rate direction.
In the commodities market, silver prices have seen a slight decline of 0.4%, settling at 32.23 USD per ounce, while platinum and palladium have increased by 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively, reaching 964.80 USD and 968.46 USD per ounce.
Turning to the oil market, the price of Brent crude oil has experienced a slight dip, while WTI oil has seen a minor increase. At the end of the trading session on April 15, Brent crude oil fell by 21 cents to 64.67 USD per barrel, and WTI oil dropped by 20 cents to 61.33 USD per barrel. The volatility in oil prices is largely influenced by the unstable trade policies of the U.S., which have created uncertainty in the global oil market and compelled OPEC to lower its oil demand outlook for the year.
The International Energy Agency has projected that global oil demand in 2025 will grow at its slowest rate in five years, primarily due to concerns regarding economic growth stemming from Trump's trade tariffs. This uncertainty has led several banks, including UBS, BNP Paribas, and HSBC, to cut their crude oil price forecasts.
Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, commented, "If the trade war continues to escalate, the downside risk scenario could see Brent crude trading between 40 and 60 USD per barrel in the coming months." The apprehensions surrounding Trump's tariffs, combined with increased supply from OPEC+, have contributed to a 13% decline in oil prices this month.
On April 14, oil prices saw a slight uptick after Trump announced he was considering revising the 25% tariff on imported automobiles from Mexico and other countries. Analysts at the energy consultancy Gelber and Associates observed that oil prices are fluctuating in response to the conflicting tariff policies of the Trump administration regarding cars and auto parts.
In the U.S., banking executives have warned that consumer spending faces significant risks if the volatility caused by Trump's trade policies persists. Interestingly, U.S. import prices unexpectedly dropped in March due to reduced energy product costs, indicating that inflation may be easing ahead of the full implementation of Trump's tariffs. However, some analysts remain concerned that the President's tariff policies could increase inflation, complicating the Fed's ability to lower interest rates.
In Europe, the European Central Bank has reported that some banks have restricted access to credit in the first quarter of 2025 and are expected to continue tightening credit standards due to growing concerns about the economic outlook influenced by Trump's tariffs.
Regarding U.S. oil inventories, the American Petroleum Institute reported that for the week ending April 11, U.S. oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels, while gasoline inventories decreased by 3 million barrels, and distillate inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels.
As for domestic fuel prices, gasoline E5 RON 92 is capped at 18,882 VND per liter, while RON 95-III is limited to 19,207 VND per liter. Diesel oil is priced at no more than 17,243 VND per liter, kerosene at 17,413 VND per liter, and mazut oil at 15,902 VND per kilogram. The Ministry of Finance and Industry is set to adjust these retail fuel prices on April 17, 2025. Given the recent decline in global oil prices, domestic fuel prices might continue to decrease slightly. However, prices could reverse if global oil prices surge in the early trading sessions of the week.
In the latest price adjustment, gasoline E5 RON 92 decreased by 1,491 VND per liter, RON 95-III fell by 1,712 VND per liter, diesel oil dropped by 1,235 VND per liter, kerosene decreased by 1,322 VND per liter, and mazut oil fell by 1,124 VND per kilogram.
