Gold prices have surged, reaching near-record highs supported by concerns over rising inflation and the weakening U.S. dollar. On Monday, spot gold rose by 0.1% to $2,939.15 per ounce, edging closer to the all-time high of $2,954.69 per ounce set last Thursday. Future gold prices stabilized at $2,953, reflecting the trend of investors fleeing to safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty.
The current spike in gold prices can be attributed to various factors. Geopolitical risks coupled with uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policies have cultivated instability, prompting investors to seek shelter through gold. Inflation expectations have surged to 4.3%, raising fears of purchasing power erosion and driving demand for the precious metal.
Analyzing the technical aspects of the gold market, price consolidations appear within the $2,900 to $3,000 range, showcasing strength and potential for continued increases. Yet, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, hinting at possible corrections before any more upward movement. Observers note if gold cannot break through resistance at $2,950-$3,000, strong support may emerge at $2,800.
The U.S. dollar's declining value remains central to this narrative, as the DXY index has dipped below 107. Currently testing support at 105.20, the dollar's weakness enhances gold's appeal as a valuable store of wealth. Continued declines in the dollar index could invite fresh investment flows seeking financial stability.
Market projections for gold remain positive, with potentials to hit the $3,000 mark should it surmount current resistance levels. Investors are advised to closely monitor key economic indicators from the U.S., such as GDP figures and the PCE price index, as they could significantly affect both gold and dollar prices. The interplay of rising inflation and dollar weakness is likely to sustain favorable conditions for gold, making it a compelling choice amid present economic uncertainties.
Shifting focus to the digital economy, Vietnam is experiencing substantial growth driven by technological advancements. The foundation economy, which utilizes digital technology and data, is becoming pivotal as businesses leverage the Fourth Industrial Revolution to achieve sustainable, rapid growth. Over the past decade, the foundational economy has expanded significantly, penetrating various sectors, particularly transport and trade.
According to the Ministry of Information and Communications, Vietnam currently boasts 50,350 operating digital technology enterprises—exceeding the government’s target of 48,000. This rapid growth allows for the expansion of digital business services, including platform services across numerous industries. Notably, Grab Vietnam alone accounts for 0.23% of the regional Gross Regional Product (GRDP), including significant employment generation.
The economic significance of platform-based businesses was highlighted with digital economy output contributing 12.66%, 12.88%, 12.63%, and 12.33% to Vietnam’s GDP from 2020 to 2023 respectively. By the first half of 2024, this value increased to 18.3%. The platform sector contributed approximately $40.5 billion to the GDP, equivalent to 9.92%—notably, the transport sector alone contributed $6.8 billion, accounting for 1.7% of GDP.
According to the Central Institute for Economic Management, the digital economy's growth rate has outpaced GDP growth by three to four times over the past two years. This trend is pivotal for sustaining future economic expansion. Experts highlight the vast market potential within Vietnam’s 100 million population as ripe for nurturing and developing digital technology enterprises.
Looking toward the future, analysts anticipate the foundational economy will continue to play a key role, propelling Vietnam toward achieving its GDP growth goal of 8% or more by 2025, with double-digit growth targeted for subsequent years. The digital economy is positioned as a significant driver of revenue and employment, substantially contributing to domestic market competitiveness.
To fully tap the potential of the foundational economy, experts recommend the government establish clear, cohesive policies focused on this business model. It is imperative to formulate fresh approaches to manage these innovative business models without retrofitting old regulations onto modern platforms. The government should also proactively evaluate potential risks arising during the foundational economy's development and implement warnings and guidelines to mitigate user risks when engaging with digital platforms.
To stimulate rapid growth across foundational economy services and the broader digital economy, the business community advocates for policies reducing bureaucratic red tape and expediting licensing times for new technological products and services.
Khánh Trung - Vietnam Commodity Trading.