Gold, that age-old symbol of wealth and security, has been on a tear this year—so much so that even seasoned market watchers are scratching their heads. On October 1, 2025, gold prices surged to a record-smashing $3,900 per ounce, according to Benzinga and multiple analysts. That’s a 47% leap since January 1, a monumental move for a commodity known more for slow, steady gains than for fireworks. And as the precious metal soars, a growing chorus of experts is watching to see if Bitcoin—the so-called "digital gold"—will follow suit, just as it has in the past.
Investor and analyst Ted Pillows noted this week that Bitcoin has shown a strikingly strong correlation with gold, but with an eight-week lag. “Right now, gold is hitting new highs, which means Bitcoin will do this next,” Pillows predicted, while cautioning that a correction could still hit before a big fourth quarter for crypto. The implication? If history repeats itself, Bitcoin’s price could echo gold’s rally by late November, right in time for the end-of-year market fireworks that crypto fans have come to expect.
Gold’s meteoric rise hasn’t gone unnoticed in the broader investment community. Venture capitalist Chris Burniske remarked, "Gold has a head start, but we all know how it will end," hinting at his belief that Bitcoin will eventually catch up. Trader Luke Martin echoed this optimism, while ByteTree analyst Charlie Morris offered a note of reassurance to crypto faithful: “The good news for Bitcoin is that sooner or later, gold will get tired.”
For those tracking the numbers, the comparison is almost surreal. Gold’s 47% gain so far in 2025 dwarfs its historical average annual increase of just 6-8%, as cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted on X. Bitcoin, for its part, has climbed 27% since January—nothing to sneeze at, but still trailing the yellow metal. Analyst Miles Deutscher described gold’s performance as an “anchor” for Bitcoin, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could be pulled up after the usual lag.
What’s behind this historic run for gold? Several macroeconomic factors are at play. Trade uncertainty has spiked due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, pushing investors toward safer assets. Central banks have been on a gold-buying spree, with countries like China, Russia, and India aggressively increasing their reserves. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has weakened by 12% this year, and inflation continues to dog economies worldwide. With economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks mounting, gold’s appeal as a safe haven is stronger than ever.
The result: the market value of the United States’ gold reserves topped $1 trillion for the first time in history, even as America’s strategic share of global gold reserves fell to a 90-year low. While the U.S. still sits atop a massive pile of gold, its relative dominance is slipping as other nations bulk up their holdings.
Not everyone sees this as a one-way street, though. Van de Poppe, despite acknowledging gold’s bullish chart, sounded a note of caution: “It’s up 47% for the year, while the average is between 6-8% on a yearly basis. Very unusual occasion and I think that we’re going to see a significant correction.” He stopped short of predicting exactly when a retracement might occur, but advised that it’s "not the best time" to buy gold at these lofty prices.
Economist Peter Schiff, a well-known gold advocate, couldn’t disagree more. In an interview cited by Benzinga, Schiff predicted that gold’s historic rally is far from over. “I think gold is not going to stop going up because the dollar is not going to stop going down. It’s not going to stop at $5,000 [per ounce]. It’s not going to stop at $10,000. It’s going to go higher. I mean, it could go to $20,000,” he said. Schiff expects the Federal Reserve to pivot back to quantitative easing—a policy move that could pump more cash into the economy and send inflation “through the roof.”
But what about Bitcoin? Crypto analyst Joe Consorti, head of growth at Theya, has pointed out that Bitcoin tends to follow gold’s directional bias with a lag of 100-150 days. “When the printer roars to life, gold sniffs it out first, then Bitcoin follows,” Consorti observed. He even floated the possibility that, if Bitcoin rises by October’s historical average, the cryptocurrency could hit $150,000 by Halloween.
History seems to support this pattern. As noted by analysts and reported in Benzinga, Bitcoin’s biggest rallies have often followed gold’s macro tops—in 2013, 2017, and again in 2020/21. The idea is simple: when gold makes a historic move, Bitcoin often isn’t far behind. With gold’s current rally, some are betting the stage is set for another major run in digital assets.
Of course, nothing in the markets is ever guaranteed. As of October 2, 2025, spot gold was trading at $3,868.71 per ounce, up 0.09% in the last 24 hours, according to Benzinga Pro. Bitcoin, while showing positive momentum, still has some ground to make up if it’s going to match gold’s extraordinary performance this year.
Looking at the bigger picture, the interplay between gold and Bitcoin is more than just a numbers game. It’s about how investors respond to global uncertainty, inflation, and shifts in monetary policy. Gold, with its centuries-old reputation, remains the go-to for many during turbulent times. Bitcoin, still a relative newcomer, is making its case as "digital gold," especially among younger and tech-savvy investors.
As central banks continue to stockpile gold and economic headwinds persist, the safe-haven narrative for both assets is only getting stronger. But whether Bitcoin will mirror gold’s 2025 rally—or chart its own unpredictable course—remains an open question. For now, the eyes of the financial world are glued to the charts, waiting to see if Bitcoin’s next big move is just around the corner.
With gold at historic highs and Bitcoin poised for a potential surge, investors and analysts alike are bracing for a dramatic end to 2025 in the world of alternative assets.
