The world is officially on track to reach unprecedented warming, as this year's average global temperature is expected to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This alarming milestone is set to occur for the first time since records began and marks the planet’s rapid transition toward higher temperatures, largely attributed to human activities and climate change resulting from fossil fuel use.
The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) announced on November 16, 2024, their findings indicating 2024 is virtually certain to be the hottest year recorded. Between January and October of this year, temperatures reached such heights, the only way to avert this unusual record would be if the last quarter showed almost no temperature increase at all. "The fundamental, underpinning cause of this year's record is climate change," commented C3S Director Carlo Buontempo. Climate change impacts are evidently widespread, affecting all continents and ocean basins.
What’s particularly concerning is this rising temperature trend is only anticipated to escalate, with predictions stating global temperatures will surpass the 1.5°C mark set by the Paris Agreement. While the average global temperature hasn't consistently held above this benchmark, C3S estimates we could experience this threshold within the next decade, likely around 2030. "It's basically around the corner now," Buontempo noted, stressing the urgency for governments to mitigate emissions.
Climate scientists point to the primary culprit behind this unprecedented phenomenon: carbon dioxide emissions produced from burning coal, oil, and gas. Sonia Seneviratne, professor of climate science at ETH Zurich, voiced her concerns during discussions about the upcoming COP29 climate summit, emphasizing the need for stronger actions aimed at reducing reliance on fossil fuels. "The limits set by the Paris agreement are starting to crumble under the slow pace of global climate action," she warned.
The ramifications of this rising temperature are evident worldwide. The past few months have witnessed catastrophic events linked directly to climate change; from deadly flooding and wildfires to food shortages and severe weather patterns. For example, October alone saw Spain grappling with flash floods, record-breaking wildfires ravaging Peru, and devastating flooding in Bangladesh, which destroyed over one million tons of rice. The link between increasing temperatures and extreme weather is becoming frighteningly clear.
When discussing global temperature records, it's important to understand the varying datasets available. Current analysis suggests multiple reputable datasets indicate we're likely to breach the 1.5°C threshold this year. This doesn't mean every dataset presents identical results; discrepancies arise due to different ways of measuring temperatures and gaps in historical data. Measurement uniformity leads to variances, especially concerning data from the pre-industrial period (usually referencing the average from 1850-1900).
Each dataset holds its strengths and weaknesses depending on how temperature records are gathered globally. For some, the breach of the 1.5°C threshold has already occurred, whereas others are only approaching this figure. Generally, across these five prominent datasets used for measuring global temperatures, the analysis has shown most will report breaches of the threshold for the year, even if temperature readings cool slightly by the year's end.
For example, GISTEMP data from NASA mandates certain cooling trends to avoid reaching the threshold. It stipulates temperatures for November and December need to drop by about 0.28°C compared to September and October averages. Historically, achieving this level of cooling has only occurred 31 times out of 1,735 recorded sequential changes (meaning it has happened just 1.8% of the time). Given these statistics, the likelihood of breaching the 1.5°C benchmark seems increasingly inevitable.
While the concept of annual temperature averages signals concern, it’s worth noting calendar years play little role when considering the processes governing global warming. Remarkably, the 12-month running mean for average global temperatures has shown breaches across four out of the five analyzed datasets. Hence, without significant changes to course — which don't appear likely with the current negotiations taking shape at the COP29 summit — the prospect of sustained warming beyond the pre-industrial average is all but assured.
This moment marks not just another chapter but a warning correlatively tied to our collective actions. The mounting evidence of extreme weather occurrences should spur enhanced reactionary measures from governments and individuals alike. Real change requires more than just discussions, it needs actionable plans and initiatives: reducing emissions, transitioning to cleaner energy, and setting tangible goals related to fossil fuel reliance.
The climate crisis is at our doorstep, pressing for immediate attention to avert compounded consequences on ecosystems, food security, and our overall future. The urgency to act cannot be overstated, as shown by these alarming predictions. The scientific consensus calls for immediate measures; ignoring it risks exacerbated conditions we are already witnessing globally.
