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26 March 2025

Global Markets Mixed Amid U.S. Tariff Uncertainty

Investors await crucial economic data and developments in Trump's trade agenda

World markets displayed a mixed performance on Wednesday, March 26, 2025, following a subdued trading day on Wall Street. Investors are currently on edge, eagerly awaiting significant data releases and developments regarding U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade agenda, particularly with the looming April 2 deadline for new tariffs.

In Europe, the mood was predominantly negative, with Germany’s DAX index falling 0.6% to 22,973.53, and the CAC 40 in Paris also down 0.6% to 8,057.88. Conversely, Britain’s FTSE 100 managed to edge up 0.2%. Futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were 0.1% lower, indicating cautious sentiment ahead of crucial economic indicators expected later this week.

Asian markets presented a more varied picture. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.6% to reach 23,483.32, while the Shanghai Composite index slipped slightly, down less than 0.1% to 3,368.70. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index saw a modest increase of 0.7%, closing at 38,027.29, and the Kospi in Seoul rose by 1.1% to 2,643.94. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.7% to 7,999.00.

On Tuesday, March 25, 2025, the S&P 500 managed to add 0.2% after a more substantial jump of 1.8% on Monday, marking one of its best days in the past year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a marginal increase of less than 0.1%, while the Nasdaq composite rose 0.5%. U.S. stocks have bounced back significantly from a recent correction, recovering a considerable portion of their losses after falling 10% below their all-time high earlier this month. However, the S&P 500 remains down 6% from its record high, which has led to discussions about the market appearing less expensive than it did during its euphoric rise in previous years.

Despite this recovery, strategists on Wall Street caution that further volatility is likely, particularly with the April 2 deadline approaching. This date, referred to by Trump as "Liberation Day," is when he plans to impose tariffs on trading partners that he believes impose unfair burdens on the U.S. economy.

The uncertainty surrounding these tariffs has already begun to dampen confidence among U.S. households and businesses. A report released on Tuesday revealed that consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, has dropped to its lowest level in 12 years. This decline is primarily attributed to a significant fall in expectations for future economic conditions, which now sit well below the threshold of 80 that typically signals an impending recession.

Despite the prevailing pessimism, actual economic activity and job market indicators appear to be holding steady, even as company and consumer sentiments worsen. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, particularly as the week progresses.

On Wall Street, the Trump Media & Technology Group saw its stock surge by 8.9% after announcing a partnership with Crypto.com to launch a range of "America-First" investment funds. These exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will include bitcoin and other digital assets, as well as securities focused on American industries such as energy. This collaboration aims to leverage the growing interest in cryptocurrencies and align with nationalistic economic sentiments.

Tesla Inc. also saw a positive uptick, with shares rising 3.4% despite the company facing disappointing sales figures in Europe. However, Tesla's stock remains down nearly 29% for the year thus far, reflecting ongoing challenges in the electric vehicle market.

In other market news, U.S. benchmark crude oil prices increased by 60 cents, reaching $69.60 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 63 cents to $73.02 per barrel. Currency markets showed the U.S. dollar strengthening against the Japanese yen, rising to 150.22 from 149.86 yen late Tuesday. The euro remained stable at $1.0792.

As the week progresses, investors will be keenly awaiting reports on economic growth, personal spending, and durable goods orders, which are set to provide further insights into the health of the U.S. economy. The anticipation surrounding these data releases is palpable, as they could potentially influence market trends and investor sentiment going forward.

In summary, the mixed performance of global markets reflects a cautious approach by investors, who are navigating uncertainties in U.S. trade policies and their potential economic ramifications. The upcoming data releases will be critical in shaping market expectations and guiding investment decisions in the days to come.