Global food commodity prices surged in July 2025, reaching their highest level in over two years and underscoring the persistent volatility in international markets. According to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the FAO Food Price Index—a widely recognized benchmark that tracks monthly price variations for a basket of staple food commodities—averaged 130.1 points last month. This marks a 1.6% increase from June 2025 and the highest reading since early 2023, as reported by Reuters and confirmed in FAO’s latest press release.
While this uptick signals a notable rebound, the index remains 18.8% below its all-time high set in March 2022, which followed the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine that sent shockwaves through global food supply chains. Still, July’s figure is 7.6 percentage points above the level recorded in July 2024, indicating a renewed upward trajectory after a period of relative stability, according to the organization’s official report.
The primary drivers behind this latest increase were surging prices for meat and vegetable oils, which more than offset declines in cereals, dairy, and sugar. The FAO’s meat price index, in particular, reached a record high of 127.3 points in July—up 1.2% from June. This milestone was propelled by strong import demand for beef and sheep meat, especially from China and the United States. “Strong import demand from China and the United States boosted beef and sheep meat prices,” the FAO noted in its assessment, as cited by Reuters.
Several factors converged to push meat prices higher. In the United States, drought conditions have reduced the domestic cattle herd, prompting increased beef imports to meet consumer demand. Meanwhile, China’s appetite for beef has soared, with record imports last year reflecting the meat’s growing popularity. However, an official investigation into imported beef has introduced some uncertainty about whether Chinese demand will remain robust in the coming months.
Elsewhere in the meat sector, poultry prices experienced a modest increase following the resumption of imports of Brazilian chicken by major buyers. Brazil regained its avian influenza-free status after addressing a farm-level outbreak, allowing exports to resume. In contrast, pig meat prices fell due to ample supplies and weaker demand, particularly across the European Union, the FAO explained.
Vegetable oils saw the most dramatic price jump of any food category last month, with the FAO’s vegetable oil index surging to 166.8 points—a 7.1% month-on-month increase and the highest level in three years. Prices for palm, soy, and sunflower oils all climbed sharply, driven by robust global demand and tightening supplies. However, rapeseed oil prices bucked the trend, easing with the arrival of new European harvests, according to the FAO’s analysis.
While meat and oil prices soared, the picture was quite different for cereals, rice, dairy, and sugar. The FAO’s cereal price benchmark fell to its lowest level in nearly five years, reflecting the seasonal influx of wheat from Northern Hemisphere harvests. This increase in supply helped ease market pressures, even as other food categories experienced upward momentum.
Rice prices also retreated, dropping 1.8% in July—a decline attributed to ample export stocks and subdued import demand. This trend was echoed in the dairy sector, where prices slipped slightly for the first time since April 2024. The FAO noted that lower costs for butter and milk powders more than compensated for modest gains in cheese prices.
Sugar prices continued their downward slide for a fifth straight month, with the FAO’s sugar price index averaging 103.3 points in July—a 0.2 percentage point drop from June. The persistent decline has been driven by expectations of higher output in major producing countries such as Brazil and India, despite some signs that global import demand for sugar is starting to recover.
The impact of these global trends is being felt acutely in countries like Morocco, where food inflation has become a pressing concern for ordinary households. Drought and rising feed costs have reduced national livestock numbers, forcing Morocco to boost meat imports in an effort to stabilize both supply and prices. As a result, meat prices in Morocco jumped by 4% last month, while fish and seafood prices rose by 3.9%. Even though cereal prices have eased internationally, Morocco’s reliance on imports and associated transport costs have kept local prices stubbornly high, making everyday staples more expensive for consumers.
The July data, as interpreted by the FAO and reported by multiple outlets including Reuters, highlight the complexity of today’s global food markets. Climate conditions, geopolitical tensions, and shifting consumption patterns all play a role in shaping prices. The aftermath of the Ukraine conflict, ongoing droughts in key agricultural regions, and evolving trade policies continue to disrupt traditional supply chains and inject uncertainty into future price forecasts.
Strong demand for meat and vegetable oils is not limited to a single region. China’s rising middle class, for example, has driven a surge in beef consumption, while the United States’ domestic challenges have ripple effects on international trade flows. The resumption of Brazilian chicken exports illustrates how animal health and biosecurity issues can swiftly alter global market dynamics. Meanwhile, the decline in pig meat prices in Europe demonstrates that not all segments of the food market are moving in the same direction—a reminder of the sector’s inherent complexity.
For consumers and policymakers alike, these price movements carry significant implications. Higher costs for meat and vegetable oils can strain household budgets, especially in countries with high import dependence or where inflation is already an issue. At the same time, declining prices for cereals, rice, and sugar may offer some relief, but only if those savings are passed on to end consumers—something that is far from guaranteed in many national contexts.
What lies ahead? The FAO’s July report offers no certainties, but it does underscore the importance of monitoring not just headline indices, but also the underlying factors—climate, trade, and demand—that drive them. As the world continues to grapple with the aftershocks of recent crises and prepares for future challenges, the story of food prices remains one of both resilience and vulnerability. For millions of people, these numbers are more than just statistics—they shape the cost, and sometimes the availability, of the food on their tables.
