With the world observing the tumultuous political turmoil of 2024, the stage is set for several pivotal elections anticipated throughout the year 2025. While the upcoming year may not showcase the same fever pitch of voting activity seen this past year, it still holds significant events, especially for countries like Belarus, Germany, the Philippines, Canada, and Chile. Election experts have painted the picture of what’s at stake, driven by themes like economic recovery, the rise of populist movements, and internal political struggles.
On January 26, 2025, Belarus will witness the continuation of Alexander Lukashenko’s reign. Having ruled since 1994, Lukashenko will not face any real opposition as he aims for his seventh term. Tatsiana Kulakevich from the University of South Florida notes, "Current conditions in Belarus do not allow for free and fair elections." Following widespread allegations of electoral fraud during the 2020 elections and subsequent protests, the political climate remains tense as repression persists, with over 1,200 political prisoners currently detained. With the looming election, international observers fear another round of civil unrest might echo the protests of 2020.
Germany’s political dynamics will shift dramatically on February 23, when federal elections are now set to occur six months earlier than initially scheduled. Following the collapse of the coalition government due to internal discord, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition faces dire challenges as it navigates pressing issues like the war in Ukraine and rising inflation. Garret Martin from American University commented on the significance of the election, stating, "Germany is facing increased economic pressures along with fears surrounding immigration and security policies linked to the impending US election." With Scholz's approval ratings dismally low, Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democratic Union is favored to succeed him, potentially marking Germany's shift toward more conservative governance.
On May 12, 2025, the Philippines will hold midterm elections where the political tussle will reshape the power dynamics within the ruling administration. Notably, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. stands at the forefront, eyeing control over the Senate amid political frictions with Vice President Sara Duterte, daughter of the former president. Lisandro E. Claudio from UC Berkeley observed, "Marcos must consolidate his power, especially with rising tensions against the backdrop of familial rivalries and presidential aspirations. A Marcos-dominated Senate may lead to significant political repercussions, including the potential impeachment of Duterte." The election outcomes will decide the extent to which Marcos can secure his political interests against the familial backdrop of the Duterte legacy.
Meanwhile, Canada may face early federal elections well before the October 2025 constitutionally mandated deadline. The Liberal Party, led by Justin Trudeau, is grappling with turbulent political tides, witnessing calls for no-confidence votes and internal dissent. Patrick James from USC Dornsife explained the dire situation, indicating, "Trudeau's coalition faces increasing pressures, with the opposition Conservative Party polling significantly higher. The elections will not only test Trudeau’s governance but also signify the ideological division within Canada as it confronts rising inflation and national identity issues."
Lastly, Chile's struggle for political stability will culminate on November 16, 2025, as it prepares for the presidential election with President Gabriel Boric barred from extending his term. Jorge Heine of Boston University notes, "Chileans are more concerned about economic recovery and crime than structural reforms after the failed attempts for constitutional changes." The election is likely to spotlight candidates like Evelyn Matthei of the right-wing coalition, who, alongside other challengers, may shape the country's future trajectories.
While this year may pale compared to the electoral bonanza of 2024, these upcoming elections are integral to shaping political landscapes, not only domestically but on the global stage. Markets and political analysts are keeping close tabs, ready to see if incumbents can withstand waves of public discontent or if challengers can capitalize on the sentiment to forge new paths for their nations.
