The global community is gearing up for the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP29, taking place from November 11 to 22, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. This year's event arrives against the backdrop of significant geopolitical turmoil, with conflicts such as those in Ukraine and the Middle East intensifying, paired with rising economic anxieties and Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency. With such chaos shaping the world stage, the prospects for reaching ambitious climate agreements reportedly appear bleaker than ever.
Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault from Canada posits, "Our window to keep global average temperatures from surpassing 1.5°C is closing fast on us, so we need everyone to be pulling in the same direction." His optimistic remarks reflect the urgency of climate negotiations at COP29, framed around financial commitments—a pressing focal point of these talks, especially for developing nations.
Unlike last year's solid progress at the UAE’s COP28, where some agreements shaped the discourse on transitioning away from fossil fuels, Azerbaijan is not as diplomatically adept. The nation, largely reliant on fossil fuel extraction, has faced calls for boycotts due to its recent military activities, particularly the exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh. Observers find this setting disconcerting, as they note Azerbaijan's lack of experience with climate negotiations.
Despite these challenges, proponents of COP29 insist there's still room for productive dialogue. Ani Dasgupta, president of the World Resources Institute, noted, "An ambitious deal is possible. Negotiators understand the stakes." A primary aim is to formalize North-South financial commitments—an issue at the heart of negotiations. The developed world previously pledged to deliver $100 billion annually to assist developing nations from 2020-2025, but the target was only met two years late. Now, with even greater climate adaptation needs, calls are being made for post-2025 funding frameworks to possibly exceed this initial benchmark.
The urgency surrounding climate financing can't be overstated. Vulnerable nations, often on the front lines of climate catastrophes, are eagerly awaiting these funds. This COP is particularly pivotal since all nations must submit updated climate pledges to the UN by 2025, as mandated by the Paris Agreement. Observations indicate funding will be perceived as a non-negotiable precursor for the ambitious climate goals sought by many developing countries.
But the atmosphere at these talks is anything but tranquil. With pervasive geopolitical strife, panels focused on climate diplomacy may experience turbulence as previous alliances fray. Traditional barriers between developed and developing nations still exist, but the increased permeability of these lines introduces variables, including how the U.S. and China might align their interests.
Historically, COP conferences have served as diplomatic bubbles where negotiators focus solely on technical discussions - insulated from the storms brewing outside. For many, they are spaces where progress is still obtained, albeit slowly. COP29 will grapple with various forms of pressure, including historical patterns of emissions and the reality of many nations failing to meet climate targets outlined at previous summits, including COP26 and COP28.
With hopes for substantial outcomes dampened, questions loom about President Trump’s electoral victory. Critics fear this could embolden nations resistant to supporting climate progress. Bill Hare of Climate Analytics articulated this sentiment: "A lot of work has been done to, in the event of a Trump election, make sure the system doesn’t collapse, but still, it will weaken pressure for a positive outcome in Baku." While Guilbeault remained optimistic about U.S. involvement during the upcoming negotiations, the clouds of uncertainty have gathered thickly.
Canada has expressed aspirations to re-emerge as a pivotal consensus builder among the negotiating parties. Historically, Canada has played roles where it facilitated agreement on climate financing, and following the pledge made by developed nations to raise $100 billion annually, it has contributed to the dialogue on mobilizing necessary resources. Guilbeault's comments indicate Canada intends to reassert its influence at COP29, emphasizing easy access for developing countries to necessary financing as part of its commitments.
Surprisingly, registration numbers this year are down from previous events, reflecting growing disinterest or possible challenges surrounding the global climate dialogue. Initial figures show only 32,000 delegates registered to attend COP29, starkly contrasting with the 85,000 who participated last year. This decline raises eyebrows and suggests apprehensions circling the talks and the political climate across many nations.
Despite these headwinds, the discussions held during COP29 may still carry weight. The threading of diverse perspectives provides fertile ground for generating ideas on how to secure future funds for climate action and outlines fundamental changes needed to address our current climate crisis.
For now, the world watches and waits to see if progress can be made during COP29 amid the swirling uncertainties and the uneasy geopolitical waters grasping at countries across the globe. Serious action against climate change cannot afford to be drowned out by electoral politics or tensions over fossil fuel dependencies.
