Baseball fans are in for a treat this afternoon as the San Francisco Giants host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oracle Park, with first pitch set for 3:45 PM Eastern (12:45 PM Pacific). This isn’t just another late-season matchup—the Giants are charging hard, looking to complete a sweep of the Diamondbacks and edge even closer to the New York Mets for that elusive final National League Wild Card spot. With just two games separating San Francisco from the Mets, every pitch and every swing could mean the difference between October baseball and an early vacation.
The Giants have been nothing short of electric lately, winning 13 of their last 16 games. That surge has them not only in the thick of the Wild Card chase but also keeping a distant eye on the NL West division race, where they trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by seven games. While overcoming the Dodgers might be a long shot, Giants fans can’t help but dream a little, especially with the way their team’s been swinging the bats. Over the past 15 days, San Francisco leads all of Major League Baseball in home runs, batting average, and runs scored. They’re hitting a blistering .315 as a team—more than 40 points higher than the second-place Mets. Talk about getting hot at the right time!
On the mound for Arizona is left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez enters the game with a 7-8 record and a 5.22 ERA, but he’s been showing signs of a turnaround. In his past two starts—against the Dodgers and the Red Sox—he’s allowed just one run across 12 innings. Still, he’s had his struggles against these Giants, giving up four runs on five hits in just four innings back in May. Rodriguez’s season has been a rollercoaster, especially when it comes to leadoff hitters: he’s allowed an OPS of 1.092 to the first batter of the inning, the second-highest mark among qualifying MLB starters. On the flip side, his away fastball has been nearly untouchable, with opponents managing a hard-hit rate of just 31%—the best in the league among starters with at least 57 innings pitched.
Opposing him is Giants rookie right-hander Carson Seymour. Seymour’s record sits at 1-2 with a 4.25 ERA, but he’s coming off a strong outing where he held the St. Louis Cardinals to just one run over five innings. This month, Seymour has been lights out: he’s allowed an OPS of just .284, a slugging percentage of .118, and opponents are hitting a paltry .118 against him. That’s good for top-10 or better in the league in each category among pitchers with at least two innings pitched. Giants fans have to be excited about the way their rookie is developing under the September spotlight.
Let’s take a look at today’s starting lineups. For Arizona: Geraldo Perdomo leads off at shortstop, followed by Ketel Marte at second, Corbin Carroll in right, Gabriel Moreno catching, Adrian Del Castillo at designated hitter, Blaze Alexander at third, Alek Thomas in center, Tim Tawa at first, and Jake McCarthy in left. On the Giants’ side: Heliot Ramos starts in left, Rafael Devers is the designated hitter, Willy Adames at short, Matt Chapman at third, Wilmer Flores at first, Casey Schmitt at second, Jung Hoo Lee in center, Luis Matos in right, and Patrick Bailey behind the plate.
Both teams bring interesting betting trends and player props into this matchup. The Diamondbacks are slight underdogs (+100 moneyline), while the Giants are favored at -120. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs, and betting models give San Francisco a 51.8% chance to win, factoring in recent player performances, simulations, and starting pitcher matchups. For those looking to spice up their afternoon with a wager, there are plenty of prop bets to consider. Diamondbacks’ Corbin Carroll has hit the runs over in 17 of his last 25 games, while Ildemaro Vargas has been hot with home runs in two of his last six. On the Giants’ side, Patrick Bailey has cleared the home run mark in three of his last six, and Rafael Devers has been a walk machine, surpassing the over in 14 of his last 20 games.
Digging into the season-long stats, the Diamondbacks have been exceptional against left-handed pitching, batting .284—best in the majors. They put 40% of their swings in play against southpaws and strike out just 19% of the time in those matchups. Arizona’s offense also boasts the best on-base percentage at home in 2024, sitting at .347. On the pitching side, however, Diamondbacks hurlers have struggled on the road this month, posting an ERA of 8.44 in two games, the highest in MLB. Their bullpen has also had trouble holding late leads, with the team winning just 62 of 69 games when leading entering the ninth inning—lowest in the league.
The Giants, meanwhile, have been the hottest team at the plate over the past two weeks. They’re slugging .553 and have an OPS of .925 in that span—both tops in the majors. Against left-handed pitching this month, San Francisco is batting an eye-popping .455 with an OPS of 1.175. That’s bad news for Rodriguez, who’ll need to be sharp to navigate this lineup. On the mound, Giants pitchers have induced groundballs at a league-best rate of 48% since 2023, and that trend has continued through this season. Their ability to keep the ball on the ground could be key against a Diamondbacks team that puts the ball in play.
When it comes to late-game drama, both teams have some quirks. The Giants are 10-57 when trailing entering the eighth inning, which, believe it or not, is the second-best mark in MLB. They’re also 31-25 against top-10 scoring offenses this season—a group that includes these Diamondbacks. Arizona, on the other hand, has struggled to close games, as noted earlier, and their record when holding leads late is among the lowest in baseball.
Looking at the odds and prop bets for today’s game, fans can keep an eye on home run props for Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, and Ketel Marte, as well as RBI and hit totals for Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno, and Heliot Ramos. For pitching, the over/under on strikeouts is set at 3.5 for Seymour and 4.5 for Rodriguez. With both teams fighting for postseason relevance and individual players chasing milestones and contract incentives, there’s no shortage of storylines to watch.
For those tuning in, the action will be broadcast live on NBC Sports Bay Area and Dbacks.TV, with streaming available on MLB.TV. Whether you’re a diehard Giants fan hoping for a sweep, a Diamondbacks supporter looking for a turnaround, or just a baseball enthusiast eager for some September drama, this matchup has all the ingredients of a classic down-to-the-wire contest.
With the Giants’ bats blazing and both teams’ playoff hopes hanging in the balance, the stage is set for a thrilling afternoon at Oracle Park. The game is ongoing, and as the innings unfold, every pitch will matter. Don’t blink—you won’t want to miss what happens next in this Wild Card chase.
