The results of the 2025 German Federal Elections have marked a significant turning point for the country, with the conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) led by Friedrich Merz taking the lead, and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieving record results. The elections, held on February 23, showcased the highest voter turnout since the country’s reunification, with 84% of eligible voters participating, indicating heightened public engagement and concerns over the political climate.
According to early projections from the public broadcaster ARD, CDU/CSU garnered approximately 29% of the votes, followed closely by the AfD with between 19.5% and 20%, which nearly doubles its performance from the previous elections held in 2021. Meanwhile, the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz suffered significant losses, slipping to around 16%, marking its worst electoral performance historically. Scholz expressed his disappointment, labeling the outcome as “bitter” and acknowledging the need for the party to recalibrate after its electoral defeat.
Merz, celebrating the victory at the CDU headquarters, emphasized the urgency to form a government. “The world does not wait for us,” he stated, underscoring the necessity of rapid political action to address pressing challenges, including economic recovery and migration policies. He also made it abundantly clear he would not partner with AfD, stating, “They want all the opposite of what we want. Therefore, it is impossible to govern with them.” This declaration sets the stage for complex coalition negotiations as he seeks to identify suitable partners.
The election results sharply delineate the German political scene, indicating not only the CDU/CSU's return but also the undeniable rise of the AfD. Alice Weidel, leader of the AfD and candidate for chancellor, hailed the results as “historic,” stating her party is prepared to “participate in the government formation.” She indicated this shift reflects the will of the people for change. “If our demands are not met, there will be elections again sooner than many believe,” she warned, forecasting her party’s potential growth.
The surge of the AfD has alarmed many segments of society, particularly left-wing factions and minority groups. Protests erupted outside AfD headquarters, where demonstrators voiced fear over the party’s anti-immigration stances and potential policies they view as discriminatory. Activists confronted the increased visibility of the far-right with slogans condemning their ideologies and expressing concerns about the ramifications for social cohesion within Germany.
Robert Habeck, from the Green Party, also commented on the election results, expressing willingness to negotiate with the CDU/CSU but recognizing the barriers to coalition-building. He noted the necessity of political responsibility, stating, “We are always ready to assume responsibilities,” when discussing the future interactions with Merz’s coalition efforts.
Scholz’s SPD is grappling with its historical defeat, having lost significant ground to both the CDU/CSU and AfD. Reflecting on the election night, Scholz declared, “We must acknowledge we have lost the elections,” calling for introspection within his party and recognition of the shifting political sentiments among the electorate. Analysts have pointed out the coalition dynamics will be challenging, considering the divergent interests at play, particularly surrounding migration policies and economic strategy.
For the AfD, the results signify not only political traction but also validation of its platform amid fears stemming from migration-related violence and economic instability. The party's rhetoric capitalizing on public safety concerns has struck chords with many voters disillusioned by traditional parties' approaches to these issues. Tino Chrupalla, AfD’s other co-leader, mentioned, “We have received the trust of the voters, and this should be respected by everyone,” reinforcing the sentiment of legitimization for their increasing parliamentary presence.
The electoral climate leading up to the vote was filled with intense debates centered around pressing topics such as migration and security, exacerbated by tragic events preceding the elections, wherein several violent incidents linked to migrants peaked public concern, amplifying the far-right’s appeal.
Governance will be tricky moving forward. The CDU/CSU needs allies to reach the parliamentary majority necessary to govern effectively, with potential coalition partners being social democrats, greens, or perhaps even smaller parties if they surpass the 5% threshold required to enter the Bundestag. Past experiences from coalition negotiations, particularly the lengthy discussions of 2017, cast doubts on the speed at which Merz can form the new government.
The challenges he faces are heightened by the political fragmentation seen within the Bundestag, with smaller parties potentially complicates the negotiations. If the results hold as projected, political analysts expect Merz to explore coalitions strategically, balancing the demands of right-leaning factions with the necessity for consensus from moderate representatives.
Germany stands at the precipice of significant change. The dynamics of coalition formation and governance will determine the future socio-political fabric of the country. With the emergence of the far-right as the second-largest force, and the conservative CDU/CSU under Friedrich Merz leading the way, Germany's next political chapter promises to be tumultuous, challenging norms and potentially reshaping the EU's political dynamics.