Germany’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is projected to win the national election, setting its leader Friedrich Merz on track to assume the chancellorship, according to exit polls released on Sunday.
The initial exit polls indicated the CDU/CSU alliance received at least 28.5% of the vote, significantly outperforming the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which was estimated to garner around 16% of the total votes.
Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party nearly doubled its previous score, receiving approximately 19.5% of the ballots, placing them firmly in second position. Voter turnout for this election, called due to the collapse of Scholz's three-party coalition government last November, reached 52% by four hours prior to polls closing.
“Tonight we will celebrate and from tomorrow we start working,” Merz declared shortly after the results were released, emphasizing the urgency of establishing stability within the government. Merz has vowed to implement stricter immigration measures and reform Germany's economic policies.
The CDU leader, often seen as more conservative than previous Chancellor Angela Merkel, faces the challenge of forming a new coalition government, which traditionally requires extensive negotiation. Currently, all parties except the AfD have committed to keeping it from power, setting the stage for complex political maneuvering.
Alice Weidel, the AfD’s leader, hailed the election results as "historic" and stated her party is ready to govern alongside the CDU/CSU, raising questions about potential collaborations between these two parties.
Scholz, conceding to the defeat, described the SPD's performance as "bitter" and acknowledged its unprecedented poor showing at the polls. He extended congratulations to Merz, recognizing the adverse effects of this outcome on the SPD.
Merz's path to the chancellery is complicated by the need to negotiate with potential coalition partners. Although the CDU/CSU is the largest faction, securing enough seats to govern requires alliances, possibly with the Greens, who received around 12% of the vote.
Political commentators suggest Merz would favor forming a majority with other center-right groups to avoid the complications of the prior coalition, but the SPD's significant decline raises doubts about its viability. Analysts have noted Merz’s indication of preference for swift negotiations, aiming for completion by the Easter holiday.
Looming over the election's outcome is the backdrop of heightened public concerns over immigration and economic turbulence, issues which have been pivotal to the CDU's campaign strategy. With two years of recession behind, voters have responded to promises of more decisive governance.
The rapid rise of the AfD reflects mounting electoral sentiments favoring right-leaning policies. Critics express concerns over potential normalization of extreme right rhetoric within mainstream politics, particularly as Merz is known to have collaborated with the far-right on migration issues.
Political analysts highlight the significance of the election results, indicating not just local ramifications but broader impacts for the European political climate, especially with regard to Germany's leadership role within the EU.
“This election establishes clear trends for the future of German politics,” one analyst noted, emphasizing the need for the new government to address rising extremism and public anxieties effectively.
Looking forward, Merz will have to balance various agendas as he attempts to stabilize Germany's political scene and navigate challenges not only on immigration but also on foreign relations, particularly with the U.S. under renewed Trump administration influence.
Overall, the 2025 federal election results signify pivotal shifts for Germany, altering the political dynamics heading toward what promises to be intense coalition negotiations and shaping responses to pressing domestic and international challenges.