BERLIN — Germany is undergoing significant changes to its defense strategy amid rising geopolitical tensions and concerns about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees. The incoming government, led by Christian Democrats (CDU) and Social Democrats (SPD), is preparing to fundamentally readjust its defense posture, driven by the prospect of U.S. President Donald Trump potentially withdrawing support. This shift has sparked intense discussions around military spending and the country’s nuclear policy, reflecting the urgency of the situation.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz, likely to become Germany’s next chancellor, has asserted the government must adopt the motto "whatever it takes" to confront immediate threats to peace and freedom on the continent. His focus on strengthening European independence from the United States highlights how recent global developments, especially the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, have influenced public sentiment and government policy.
The German military, known as the Bundeswehr, has faced significant challenges of its own. Eva Högl, the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces, expressed grave concerns about the current state of the military, noting, "The situation is serious. We are still not where we need to be and there is still much to do to improve the conditions for the Bundeswehr." Despite recent increases in defense spending, including the establishment of a 100-billion-euro special fund to support recruitment and procurement initiatives, Högl confirmed the Bundeswehr still suffers from severe deficiencies.
Historically, attitudes toward nuclear weapons on German soil have been complicated. A mid-2021 survey conducted by the Munich Security Conference revealed only 14 percent of Germans were supportive of nuclear arms stationed within their borders. Yet, following Russia's aggressive actions, public opinion shifted dramatically in 2022. A Panorama magazine survey indicated 52 percent of Germans favored retaining or enhancing the presence of U.S. nuclear weapons, highlighting mounting fears and the realization of their potential deterrent value.
To bolster this deterrence, the German government is exploring options for nuclear sharing arrangements with European powers like France and the United Kingdom. Discussions have already been buoyed by the positive response from French President Emmanuel Macron, who deemed Merz’s proposal as "historic" and has signaled his willingness to open strategic dialogue on European defense.
This strategic pivot echoes the broader need for Germany to rethink its military policy, especially after facing uncertainty around U.S. commitment to European security under Trump. Merz's calls for solidifying defense independence have led to proposals for changing Germany's constitutional debt brake to free up funds for substantially higher military spending — potentially doubling the military budget to 100 billion euros per annum.
While there are significant hurdles to this proposed shift, including parliamentary challenges, Merz's ambition to establish strong European defense capabilities is echoed by new priorities voiced by Högl and echoed by scholastic military assessments pointing to overarching issues of recruitment and personnel preparedness.
Högl indicated there were only 181,174 active soldiers as of 2024, reflecting a decline of 340 personnel from the previous year. More concerning was the rising average age of soldiers, which increased to 34 years from 32.4 the year before — factors which contribute to the readiness and operational capacity of the Bundeswehr.
Germany’s current military readiness is seen as inadequate, and Högl asserted, "We still need a lot of money," to invest in future technological capabilities, including digitalization, artificial intelligence, air defense, and robotics. This reveals how critically Germany’s commitment to revamping its military infrastructure is to its overall security strategy.
The proposed nuclear sharing framework would involve contributions from nations like Poland and certain financial systems to develop and maintain the French and British nuclear arsenals. While this proposal creates some hope for European cohesion on defense, it also faces barriers including public concerns over political stability within the U.K. and France and the broader European relationship with nuclear deterrence.
Despite potential challenges and obstacles to establishing adequate defense measures, experts argue it remains more prudent for Germany to look toward strengthening nuclear deterrence rather than pursuing its independent nuclear weapons program which may face political and financial setbacks.
Establishing comprehensive nuclear-sharing between Germany, France, and the U.K. could build stronger strategic bonds within Europe at this pivotal junction. Chancellor Scholz’s efforts to align Germany with U.S. security interests seem increasingly precarious, especially when considering the uncertain commitments of subsequent administrations.
Germany's military acknowledges the logistics of renewing equipment and infrastructure take time, much like "turning around a tanker." Nonetheless, the urgency for reform grows as Germany seeks to confront new realities on the European and global security stage. The call for active policies reflects Merz’s assertion: "My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so we can achieve independence from the USA."
The coming months will determine whether Germany can solidify its defense strategy amid changing global dynamics and whether it can effectively collaborate with its European allies on nuclear deterrent measures. This new focus might shape the future of European security and demonstrate Germany’s commitment to remaining proactive on the defense front.