Germany is on the brink of significant change as voters prepare to head to the polls on February 23, 2025, to elect members to the Bundestag. A majority of the electorate, approximately 60 million citizens, will decide the political direction of Europe's most powerful nation amid economic turmoil and heated debate over migration policies.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, appears likely to emerge as the largest party, gaining considerable momentum as the general elections draw closer. Polling suggests the CDU is on track to secure around 30 percent of the vote, overtaking the governing coalition led by Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), which is projected to receive approximately 15 percent of the electorate’s support.
"The confidence of the CDU leaders is palpable as the countdown to election day continues," remarked pundits observing the dynamic political scene. All indicators point toward the CDU capturing the highest number of seats, setting the stage for potential coalition negotiations, especially with regards to the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which has also garnered significant electoral interest, polling second with around 20 percent.
Among the main issues fueling the campaign are the economic hardships faced by many Germans. The picture of crumbling infrastructure, highlighted by images of bridge failures and woes from key industries such as Volkswagen, has sparked concerns over the overall state of the German economy. This situation has been exacerbated by increased energy costs stemming from the war in Ukraine, as the government has been forced to seek more expensive energy alternatives following sanctions against Russian supplies.
Merz has been vocal about the CDU's plans to address these pressing issues, advocating for tax cuts aimed at supporting businesses and revitalizing the economy. On the other side, the SPD has focused on public investments, emphasizing the need for more funds to be directed toward economic recovery and defense capabilities. Amidst these competing agendas, the question remains whether collaboration with the SPD will be feasible, as both parties have starkly different views on government spending and tax policy.
On the topic of migration, the political narrative has pivoted dramatically over the campaign's course. Initial discussions surrounding the economy soon shifted to the rise of crime associated with immigration, particularly after several violent incidents involving individuals of migrant backgrounds raised alarms across the nation. Public sentiment has swayed, leading all parties to bolster their stances on migration, with growing calls for stricter border controls.
According to various sources, including the Manifesto-Projekt, there has been notable alignment on migration policy between traditionally conservative CDU/CSU and the right-wing AfD, both advocating for tighter restrictions. Merz has indicated the need for significant shifts in Germany's approach to asylum seekers, echoing sentiments many voters are expressing as concerns about security and immigration mount.
Merz declared at a recent CDU event, "A change of course is necessary for Germany." He signaled the party's intent to halt asylum migration from the start of his potential administration, asserting, "From day one, no asylum seeker will be permitted entry." His rhetoric clearly distinguishes the CDU's commitment to redefining its immigration policies compared to the more liberal approaches of previous administrations.
Polling has suggested little movement among smaller parties like the FDP and Die Linke, leaving questions about their representation as they scramble to clear the 5 percent threshold needed for parliamentary presence. Conversely, other leftist parties like Die Linke are reportedly experiencing minor resurgences, particularly among younger voters disillusioned with the traditional political elite.
While the prospect of entering government as a coalition partner remains elusive for leftist parties, audience engagement during campaign rallies reveals the palpable anxiety surrounding the AfD’s rising influence. The emergence of the AfD as the second-largest party is particularly concerning for established political entities, leading to efforts to form barriers against their participation in governance. An explicit cordon sanitaire against the AfD exists, yet Merz’s growing normalization of right-wing views complicates the political fabric.
During the final stretch of campaigning, Scholz faced criticism for being less visible amid the elections and was forced to respond to urgent national issues on public platforms. While Merz has promised to restore Germany's leading role within Europe, others have questioned whether his vision aligns with the compelling realities currently facing German society.
With many voters still undecided—about 37 percent remained uncertain just days before the elections—election analysts predict potential surprises on election day. The question remains whether power will shift back toward the CDU, resurrecting conservative policies on economic affairs and immigration, or if the SPD can hold its ground.
Analyzing the upcoming elections through the lens of social and economic climates reveals the intense stakes at play. It is evident this election carries potential ramifications beyond Germany’s borders, especially considering its economic ties to countries like the Netherlands and the broader European Union.
Germany stands at the cusp of change, and as election day approaches, the decisions made at the ballot box could redefine the nation’s identity and influence for years to come. For many, this is not just another legislative election; it's the beginning of what could be termed as the ‘recalibration of values’ within the European political spectrum.