Germany's recent federal elections on February 23, 2025, have sparked significant discussion following surprising results. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has emerged as the frontrunner, claiming between 28.5% and 29% of the votes according to early exit polls. Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has made remarkable strides, securing second place with approximately 19.5% to 20% of the vote—effectively doubling its previous election performance from 2021. This election marks the best outcome for the AfD since its inception, resulting from heightened fears around immigration and the national economy.
The political atmosphere surrounding this election was charged due to the recent collapse of the left-wing governing coalition, prompting the snap elections. Millions of Germans participated, seeing over 52% of eligible voters casting their ballots even before the polling stations closed. This record-setting turnout showcases the public's urgency to voice their political preferences amid turbulent times.
The CDU, now led by Friedrich Merz, is positioned to reclaim the chancellorship, and initial indications suggest it is on track to do so. To establish a working government, Merz may need to cooperate with various parties to achieve majority support, particularly after the Social Democrats (SPD) recorded their worst-ever results—between 16% and 16.5%. This significant dip highlights the waning support for the leftist parties, raising questions about their future electoral strategies.
Notably, the CDU adopted a more right-wing stance during their campaign to capture votes from the AfD, highlighting the shifting political winds within German society. The increased popularity of the AfD reflects the electorate's growing concerns over immigration, national security, and economic stability, all of which have been amplified by recent events, including violence linked to migrants.
Despite its electoral gains, the AfD remains at the fringes of power, as potential coalition partners recoil from aligning with their far-right ideology. Nonetheless, this election's outcome is significant as it extends the AfD's influence, permitting them to resonate with approximately one-fifth of Germany's electorate—a feat comparable only to the rise of Nazi Germany before World War II.
Internal dynamics within the AfD reveal rifts between various factions. While Alice Weidel and her moderate faction continue to showcase support for Israel, co-chair Tino Chrupalla's criticisms of German policy abroad add complexity to the party's public image. Chrupalla recently described Chancellor Olaf Scholz's support for Israel as promoting dehumanization and criticized the government for its foreign policy standpoints. This divergence within party leadership is reflective of the broader ideological struggles currently shaping the AfD's political narrative.
This internal discord was visible during the last election campaign as figures like weidel attempted to position the party favorably, making claims akin to, "Only AfD can save Germany." Such statements not only aim to unite the base behind a common narrative but also highlight the appealing nature of nationalistic rhetoric amid times of economic uncertainty.
Previous associations of the AfD with antisemitic sentiments present another hurdle for the party's attempt at broader mainstream acceptance. The Central Council of Jews in Germany has labeled both the AfD and another left-wing party as dangerous to the Jewish community. President Josef Schuster voiced significant concerns, stating, "Right-wing antisemitism and left-wing Israel-hatred find a home in the AfD and BSW," emphasizing the party's contentious history.
Though the AfD’s record gains relate primarily to security and immigration concerns, their internal conflicts and historical baggage continue to complicate their aspirations of coalition-building. The coalition dynamics among the CDU, SPD, and smaller parties will be pivotal over the coming weeks as Merz seeks to form a stable government. Potential partners such as the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP) show promising possibilities, but their past unwillingness to engage with the AfD suggests considerable hurdles remain.
The future of Germany's political framework hinges on how these parties proceed to navigate the shifting electorate. Should the CDU embrace its rightward shift? Can the SPD recover from its historical low? And how does the AfD factor as it prepares for its next steps after such historic electoral success? These questions linger as Germany continues to grapple with its political identity.
The challenges facing the newly formed government will not only shape the immediate policies of the state but also its long-term political health as Europe watches closely. The outcome of this federal election serves as yet another pivotal moment for Germany, with significant consequences for both national and European politics.