On February 23, German voters will head to the polls to elect members of the Bundestag, the country’s parliament, and determine the new government to lead the nation for the next four years.
With approximately 60 million voters eligible, polling places have officially opened across Germany. Citizens will cast their votes until 6 PM local time, selecting both their local candidates and their preferred political parties. Each voter is allowed two votes: one for a local candidate and another for the party. The latter plays a significant role in how seats are allocated.
Recent polling data indicates the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), led by Friedrich Merz, enjoying substantial support, predicted to receive around 28.5% of the vote. This puts them well ahead of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is projected to secure more than 20%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), currently led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, is forecasted to garner 16.2% of the votes, with the Greens trailing at nearly 12%.
Significantly, the socialist Left Party (Die Linke) is also anticipated to exceed the necessary 5% threshold required to gain seats, with estimates of 8.5%. If these projections hold true, Merz would become Germany’s new Chancellor, succeeding Olaf Scholz.
After the exit polls were released, Merz announced the optimism within his coalition, stating, “We will try to form a government representing all of Germany and will address the nation’s challenges.” He emphasized the need for swift governance, insisting, “We must quickly re-establish functioning government so we excel domestically and can position ourselves again within Europe to demonstrate our reliability as managers.”
But with the counting still underway, analysts are already speculating about possible coalition formations. A majority of at least 316 seats is needed out of 630 to establish control over parliament. While it is theoretically possible for the CDU/CSU to align with AfD, Merz has ruled this option out, highlighting SPD as a more likely partner for building a coalition. The CDU/CSU is anticipated to secure 328 seats, but Merz’s coalition may look to the Greens to achieve a broader majority of 416 seats. This plan has potential pitfalls, as the CSU has already denied forming coalitions with the Greens.
Alternatively, the CDU/CSU could potentially lead a three-party coalition with the SPD and the Left Party, though the severe ideological differences between conservatives and leftists make this less likely.
Current projections and opinions among experts indicate the CDU/CSU remains committed to uniting Germany but will need collective agreement to effectively manage leadership. Analysts have floated various coalition scenarios, drawing attention to the idea of collaboration with the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens, echoing the so-called “Jamaica coalition,” named for the national colors of the parties involved. Concerns arise, though, over whether such coalitions would resolve current issues or replicate past difficulties faced during Scholz's administration.
Interestingly, the AfD, which claims around 20% support, will likely remain excluded from any governing coalition, with the prevailing sentiment against cooperation with far-right parties seen as taboo politically.
Friedrich Merz has reiterated this viewpoint, emphasizing, “We will not collaborate with the AfD” and has committed to countering the rising influence of extremist factions within Germany.
The results of this election will inevitably shape the political, economic, and cultural landscapes of Germany and influence the larger European Union.”