On February 23, 2025, German voters headed to the polls under significant economic distress, marking the first major election since the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's governing coalition earlier this year. With over 59 million eligible voters casting their ballots, the stakes were high, not only for the future of the government but also for the direction of one of Europe’s largest economies.
The poll opened at 08:00, with voters filling out two boxes on their ballots. The first, known as the Erststimme, is for district candidates, reflecting individual constituents' local choices. The second, the Zweitstimme, is directed toward political parties, which is more consequential since it determines the allocation of seats within the Bundestag.
Predictions leading up to the election suggested the CDU/CSU, under opposition leader Friedrich Merz, was expected to garner about 30% of votes, effectively positioning them to regain power. Polling indicated the radical-right AfD might finish second with around 20%, significantly impacting the traditional political order, where SPD was projected to receive merely 15% of the vote.
According to economist Sander Tordoir, the backdrop of these elections was steeped heavily in economic turmoil, with Germany wrestling with two consecutive years of economic contraction. Tordoir explained to NRC how the country faced fierce competition from state-subsidized Chinese industries, stating, 'Germany suffers from an anti-technology and anti-capital attitude.' This sentiment was echoed by many voters during the intense campaign.
Migratory issues also took center stage during the elections, as the controversial subject heavily influenced campaigning narratives. Candidates grappled with public concerns about immigration, countering criticism from the AfD, which has been quick to assign blame for the country’s problems on foreign influences.
At the same time, the industrial sector, particularly the automotive industry, faced real setbacks, as exemplified by sharp declines reported by major companies like Mercedes and Continental. With the German economy struggling, many voters expressed uncertainty about their futures, as one poignant question during the campaign posed, 'How do I know I will have work 20 or 30 years from now?'
Another significant factor influencing the election was the recent legislative change aimed at stabilizing the Bundestag's complexity. Germany's electoral law had recently been updated to cap the number of seats at 630, avoiding previous increases due to district victories.
This parliamentary reform also introduced pressure to meet the five-percent threshold for parties. Notably, both FDP and Die Linke hovered around this precarious line during polling, with the latter potentially benefiting from SPD's move to the center and attracting leftist voters.
Yet, SDP's attempts to maintain its relevance were severely tested. Having suffered from the coalition’s breakdown, polls indicated it was running third, leading observers to speculate whether the party could survive this electoral shake-up.
Interestingly, many younger voters showed renewed interest in Die Linke, sparked by its campaign advocating for stronger leftist policies—a direct response to the perceived move of more central parties toward the right. With their fiery rhetoric and social media strategies, this party managed to garner some traction before the election.
Shifted political landscapes and strife over economic conditions made this election pivotal. After the votes were cast, anticipated exit polls were expected shortly after the closure of ballots at 18:00. The outcomes would undoubtedly shape Germany's political narrative for years to come, illuminating the electorate's priorities—economic stability, the impact of migration, and the balance between technological advancement and social welfare.
The results of the vote not only had the potential to reshape policies domestically but also impacted Germany's role on the global stage, especially amid its current economic malaise. With pressing issues at hand, all eyes now turn to the consequences of the ballot and what new direction Germany will take under its next leader.