The German political scene is heating up as the 2025 Bundestagswahl approaches, with new polling data providing insights on party standings. Recent surveys reveal significant shifts among the political parties, particularly affecting the CDU/CSU, AfD, and members of the previous governing coalition.
According to the latest Trendbarometer by the Forsa polling institute, commissioned by ntv/RTL, the far-right AfD has fallen below the 20 percent mark for the first time, registering 19 percent as of January 20, 2025. This drop signifies diminishing support for the party, which has been embroiled in controversies. While the CDU/CSU remains the frontrunner with 31 percent, the Social Democrats (SPD) are trailing behind at 16 percent, significantly lower than their 2021 election results.
It seems the political environment is particularly challenging for the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which is currently polling at only 4 percent, risking its chance of re-entering the Bundestag. The coalition tensions have done much to harm their public standing, leading to accusations from parties like the SPD and Greens, who claim the FDP orchestrated provocations to undermine the coalition.
Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz has made his intentions clear, stating during the RTL candidate check, "I will definitely not serve as minister under Chancellor Merz." Scholz emphasized his commitment to winning the Bundestagswahl, even acknowledging the uphill battle faced by his party.
Looking at the broader picture, the CDU/CSU has also felt the pressure, having seen their support slip from 33 percent to 29 percent only recently, according to the latest INSA poll. Both the AfD and the SPD have stagnated, reflecting deep frustration among voters.
What is particularly noteworthy is how the FDP is struggling to sustain any momentum, evidenced by the party's inability to provide strong leadership or direction. While the party's received criticism targeting their effectiveness, the party gained just slightly enough support to potentially cross the five-percent threshold again.
This potentially opens the door for their re-entry, but if they fail, the political arena would be dominated by four major factions. Interestingly, both the Linkspartei and the newly formed BSW are also projected to face challenges, with polling shows BSW at 4 percent and Linkspartei at 3 percent.
Political expert Hermann Binkert stated, "The FDP is somewhat stronger right now. This takes its toll on the Union, as both parties compete for the same voter demographic, making it difficult for them to establish a separate majority." He also emphasized the importance of how current trends could affect upcoming elections.
Despite numerous strategies being employed by parties to sway undecided voters, confidence remains fragile. The political party’s struggles highlight the instability within the current political system.
More than just numbers, these polls offer glimpses of potential realignments as the election nears. If FDP, BSW, and Linkspartei fail to secure sufficient votes, their absence would leave only the CDU, SPD, Greens, and AfD to contest government seats.
Leading figures like Robert Habeck of the Greens are concentrating on refraining from intra-party disputes, urging for cohesion among opponents instead of unnecessary conflicts, especially within the CDU and CSU, where rifts frequently emerge.
A difficult road lies ahead for every party involved. With the election around the corner, the stakes have never been higher. Each side must navigate these polling trends carefully to regain or maintain their foothold among a shifting electorate.