The German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) is now assessing with significant probability the theory of the COVID-19 pandemic originating from a laboratory accident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) in China. Since early 2020, the BND has gathered various intelligence inputs culminating in reports surfacing recently, as detailed by multiple media outlets such as Süddeutsche Zeitung and Zeit.
According to these sources, the BND’s evaluation emerged from an intelligence operation codenamed "Saaremaa." This operation collected public data alongside scientific data from Chinese research institutions, particularly the WIV, where risky "Gain-of-Function" experiments may have occurred, potentially increasing the pathogenicity of coronaviruses.
The BND rates the likelihood of the lab accident theory at 80 to 95 percent. This significant probability highlights the allegations of numerous violations of laboratory safety regulations at the WIV. Reports indicate these concerns were initially studied but remained under wraps due to political sensitivities surrounding the origins of the virus.
Past discussions have centered around whether the virus was transmitted from wild animals to humans or released accidentally from the laboratory. Since the pandemic's formal onset at the end of 2019, debates have raged globally about the virus's origins. The Chinese government has vehemently denied assertions of laboratory release, citing environmental and market factors as the primary sources of the outbreak.
Christian Drosten, one of Germany’s leading virologists, emphasized the urgency of this investigation. He stated, "Chinesische Wissenschaftler haben dafür alle technischen Möglichkeiten für wissenschaftliche Beweise", underscoring the expectation for Chinese scientists to conduct studies confirming or dismissing the natural origin hypothesis, which have yet to materialize. This sentiment has been echoed by many scientific voices who wonder why no substantial evidence has been produced to clarify the virus's beginnings when such capabilities are posited to exist.
Adding another layer of complexity to the discussion, intelligence circles within the United States, particularly the CIA, have also shifted their stance recently. Under new leadership, the agency declared at the beginning of 2025 its belief leaning more toward the laboratory origin theory as plausible, citing inadequate evidence for the natural origin narrative.
This divergence of views fuels the high-stakes discourse surrounding the pandemic. With hundreds of millions infected and millions of deaths globally, the desire for clarity becomes increasingly urgent. Political consequences are intertwined as governments, including Germany's, face scrutiny for delays and hesitations to disclose such intelligence findings.
Reports of the BND's findings were allegedly kept from the Parliamentary Control Committee responsible for overseeing Germany’s intelligence services. This non-disclosure has sparked discontent within political circles, as representatives from various parties have criticized the government's handling of the information. Wolfgang Kubicki, deputy chair of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), explicitly stated the government had left the public uninformed concerning the origins of the virus.
Simultaneously, Merkel's Chancellery reportedly decided to keep these sensitive assessments confidential, presumably fearing political backlash and international tensions. Following Chancellor Olaf Scholz's transition to power, BND Chief Bruno Kahl is said to have once again informed the Chancellery about the latent findings, yet skepticism prevailed, resulting in how the information was managed.
The BND investigation and analysis of the COVID-19 situation are now under external review, with high-ranking scientists, including Drosten and Lars Schade, President of the Robert Koch Institute, involved. Their collaborative examination continues to probe the lab origin concept, maintaining the wider debate on global health and safety standards as criticisms of the Chinese response to international investigative efforts persist.
Ongoing discussions reflect the dire need for transparency, especially as the world grapples with the pandemic's aftermath. The silence surrounding these inquiries does not just have ramifications for public health policy but raises questions about international intelligence communications during crises.
Five years past the initial outbreak, the unresolved question of the virus’s origin looms larger than ever, challenging the scientific community and policymakers to find irrefutable clarity amid speculation and allegations.
Whether the roots of COVID-19 are found within the confines of scientific laboratories or within the broader ecosystem remains to be definitively resolved. Experts continue to call for rigorous examinations of the evidence, underscoring the need for cooperation from all international parties, particularly the Chinese authorities, to put this enduring mystery to rest.