On March 12, 2025, the German Federal Intelligence Agency (BND) gained significant attention following reports by the newspapers Die Zeit and Suddeutsche Zeitung claiming they had evidence from the early pandemic supporting the hypothesis COVID-19 might have originated from a laboratory leak. The BND estimated, based on information gathered since the start of the outbreak, there was between 80 to 90 percent likelihood the virus was accidentally released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
This assessment stemmed from extensive investigations the BND conducted during the early months of 2020, focusing on various Chinese government agencies and scientific institutions, particularly the controversial Wuhan lab. According to the reports, the agency found alarming data related to experiments at the facility, including 'gain-of-function' research where the virus was manipulated to increase its transmissibility.
These findings also indicated numerous safety regulation violations had occurred at the Wuhan facility. A clandestine intelligence operation known as 'Saaremaa' supported the BND's conclusions, drawing from both classified intelligence and publicly available data. Remarkably, these details had remained undisclosed, even during Angela Merkel’s tenure as Chancellor, primarily due to fears over potential repercussions and political backlash.
The BND's results were initially met with skepticism from the Merkel government, leading to the decision not to share these troubling conclusions with the World Health Organization (WHO) or even the German Parliament. This secrecy, as reports highlighted, arose from reluctance to address complex diplomatic relations with Beijing and Washington.
It wasn't until late 2024—after the leadership had transitioned to Chancellor Olaf Scholz—that the BND was finally permitted to share its findings with the CIA and select scientific experts. The CIA's spokesperson indicated, during January 2025, there was now 'a low level' of confidence connecting the COVID-19 virus to laboratory origins—an admission echoing the sentiments reflected by the BND.
With the release of the recent findings, the Chinese government has reiterated its position, categorically denying any laboratory involvement and emphasizing their commitment to transparency surrounding the investigation of COVID-19's origins. The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated emphatically, “the Wuhan Institute of Virology never conducted any 'gain-of-function' research on coronaviruses and has no connection to the emergence or leakage of COVID-19.” This statement reflects China's broader narrative, which accuses the United States of politicizing the origins-tracing debate.
Despite these denials, the revelations from the German intelligence reports have intensified discussions about where the virus originated. Many researchers now face renewed pressure to dissect the origins of the pandemic, with emphasis not just on the zoonotic spillover theory—where the virus jumps from animals to humans—but also on potential accidental release from laboratory settings.
Some experts have begun to align with the BND's position, stating the early and alarmingly high level of knowledge about COVID-19 within Wuhan is particularly telling. Reports have emerged about unpublished studies conducted from 2019 to 2020, including specific research on coronaviruses' effects on human brains.
Given the significant ramifications of the BND’s assessments, the German government has indicated plans to eventually disclose more information. They expect to share findings with both the German parliament and WHO at some point, as mounting pressure grows for greater accountability and clarity surrounding the origins of COVID-19.
Internationally, as trust continues to fracture, calls for thorough investigations and transparency have echoed throughout many global forums. The BND's findings play ever increasingly pivotal roles within these discussions, illuminating the unresolved questions surrounding the virus's origins.
The BND's insights mark another momentous chapter as governments grapple with the fallout from the pandemic, not only addressing health concerns but also examining how scientific research intersects with international politics. Further cooperation between intelligence agencies and public health institutions may dictate how quickly humanity moves toward comprehending the complex web of factors surrounding disease emergence. The world watches closely as Berlin navigates these treacherous waters impacting global health diplomacy, ensuring they concurrently uphold scientific rigor with political realities.