Germany's 2025 federal elections delivered unexpected results, marking a significant shift toward the right as the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), under Friedrich Merz's leadership, emerged victorious, setting the stage for his chancellorship. Merz claimed victory, stating, "The world out there is not waiting for us and for lengthy negotiations," emphasizing the urgency to form a new government.
Alongside the CDU's success, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) nearly doubled its vote share, securing about 20%, marking its emergence as the second most powerful party in Germany. This double-digit increase from just over 10% previously shocked many, with AfD co-leader Alice Weidel asserting, "We extend our hand to offer cooperation with the CDU. Otherwise, change won't be possible in Germany." This scenario complicates traditional political alliances, as political analysts warn of the degree to which the AfD's presence could influence governance.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz, faced severe setbacks, garnering approximately 16% of the vote, its worst performance since the party's establishment. Scholz remarked on this electoral defeat, stating, "This moment is one where we have to acknowledge we have lost the election," clearly feeling the weight of the results.
The elections, held on February 23, 2025, followed the collapse of what was referred to as the short-lived 'traffic light' coalition, consisting of the SPD, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens. Their demise stemmed primarily from disagreements on economic policy and migration reform. This environment set the tone for the elections, which focused heavily on economic recovery, immigration, and the far-right's growing influence.
With the CDU expected to lead with about 29% of the votes, speculation about potential coalition formations has taken center stage. Given past practices, the most likely scenario is the formation of another ‘grand coalition’ between the CDU and SPD, necessitating the inclusion of other parties to secure governing legitimacy. CDU general secretary Carsten Linnemann confidently declared, "The Union has won the election; the new chancellor will be called Friedrich Merz," highlighting the optimism surrounding the CDU's mandate.
Dr. Raphael Bossong, from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, aptly noted the electoral climate’s complexity, stating, "It’s more complicated than ever." The presence of the AfD, with many of its branches classified as extremist, heightens these complications as concerns grow about how the establishment parties will govern alongside emergent far-right ideals.
The election was not merely about votes but positions on key issues. Migration rapidly became the cornerstone of debates leading up to the vote, igniting discussions across the political spectrum. Both Merz and Scholz engaged with heightened calls for strict border controls, aimed at controlling asylum-seekers’ influx. Scholz's administration had previously introduced policies aimed to "deport people more often and faster," reflecting broader public sentiment against immigration, especially following publicized immigrant-related crimes.
Beyond the traditional parties, the emergence of new political factions, particularly Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) and Die Linke, has added another layer of complexity. Both parties struggled to meet the 5% electoral threshold. Yet Die Linke's surprising uptick of young voter support showcases how opposition sentiments against the far-right can shift political dynamics unexpectedly.
Looking at the broader repercussions of the elections, many traditional leftist voters expressed feelings of disenfranchisement, leading them to rethink their choices as they navigated growing support for the AfD. Public opinion has been volatile, demonstrating citizens' mixed feelings toward both immigration policies and future economic prospects. Protests emerged across the nation, reflecting worries about the far-right’s acceptance and the political establishment's handling of such sentiments.
With the threshold results highlighting failed expectations for longstanding parties, there's palpable tension surrounding what this means for the future of German politics. How governing bodies will navigate coalition talks with the newly empowered AfD and the sentiments it promotes remains to be seen.
Germany’s political scene appears set for significant changes as alliances shift, and possible tensions arise amid the CDU's and AfD's rising influence. The political establishment will need to grapple with not only governance challenges but also with reinvigorated far-right advocacy and economic recovery efforts. The results of the 2025 elections will influence how Germany addresses pressing national issues, including EU relations and refugee policies, creating both opportunities and challenges as it seeks to move forward.