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Politics
07 February 2025

German Federal Election 2025 Polls Favor CDU And AfD

Migration policies spark public interest as parties jostle for influence

The political atmosphere leading up to the 2025 German federal election is heating up, with recent polling data reflecting shifts among traditional party loyalties and the burgeoning influence of parties like the AfD. A new survey revealed major movements, particularly after recent controversies surrounding migration policies.

According to the Deutschlandtrend, the CDU/CSU has maintained its position, currently polling at 31 percent—a slight increase, showing solidification of their base amid fiercely debated migration policies. Friedrich Merz, the union's candidate for chancellorship, has seen his popularity rise, now with 32 percent approval, surpassing key competitors like Robert Habeck of the Greens, who drops to 27 percent, and Olaf Scholz of the SPD dipping to 23 percent.

With the migration debate at the forefront, 68 percent of Germans support reducing the number of refugees accepted by the country. This sentiment likely influences party philosophies going forward. A significant majority of 57 percent approve of the CDU/CSU stance to deny entry to individuals without valid documentation. Conversely, only 27 percent disapprove, indicating widespread agreement on stricter border control measures.

The controversy surrounding the CDU/CSU's collaboration with the far-right AfD during migration discussions has spurred mixed reactions. Interestingly, over half of those surveyed—50 percent—believe the union's decision to work with the AfD was inappropriate, whereas 25 percent found it acceptable.

On the other hand, the SPD has struggled to leverage these controversies effectively. While they remain at 15 percent, there are signs of possible recovery—encouragingly, the party gained slightly amid the heightened intensity of the political discourse. While the SPD reported stagnant numbers, other parties such as the Greens slipped to 14 percent, demonstrating the volatile political conditions.

Focusing on the FDP, the party has not gained traction, with Christian Lindner managing to heighten his personal approval ratings to 23 percent but failing to translate this to party support. Similarly, the smaller parties face dire circumstances; both the FDP and BSW hover just above the 5 percent threshold needed for parliamentary entry.

The poll also underlines public preferences for coalition arrangements post-election. Approximately 32 percent support the idea of CDU/CSU aligning with SPD, indicating potential for backward cooperation among traditional political factions. Still, 26 percent of those polled favor the concept of CDU/CSU forming alliances with the AfD, underscoring complex voter expectations amid party alignments.

The polling dynamics reveal contrasting perspectives across demographics, particularly around the AfD, where reported support has remained firm. Among specific subgroups, like the LGBTQ community, there has been surprising alignment with the AfD—an outcome challenging typical perceptions of the party's values.

With these trends close to election day—February 23, 2025—parties face challenges presented by rapidly shifting voter preferences. The favorable conditions for the CDU/CSU may not last, as public sentiment remains easily influenced by current events. The political strategies each party employs, especially concerning migration, will likely shape their success at the polls.

Wrapping up, the current state of polling indicates heightened competition leading to the next Bundestag election. The CDU/CSU maintains stability, even as they face scrutiny related to their increasing cooperation with the AfD—a strategy the party must navigate carefully. Whether these dynamics hold firm or shift dramatically as the election approaches remains to be seen, and voters will prepare to make pivotal choices about Germany's political future.