The German parliamentary elections are fast approaching, with the latest polls indicating the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) bloc maintaining a lead, albeit slightly diminished. According to research conducted by the INSA polling institute for the newspaper Bild, the CDU/CSU has secured 29.5 percent support, down by half a percentage point from previous surveys.
Trailing behind is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 21 percent and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) with 15 percent support. The Green Party has seen minor declines, sitting at 12.5 percent, representing a half-point drop. Conversely, the Left party has gained traction, increasing its support to 7.5 percent, and the libertarian Free Democratic Party (FDP) has climbed to 4.5 percent, though it still lingers below the 5 percent electoral threshold.
The Outcome of the Left Alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht, known as BSW, is also noteworthy, as it could potentially garner 5 percent of the votes. Should BSW enter the Bundestag, the CDU/CSU may need to rely on the SPD and the Greens to form a governing majority due to all parties excluding the possibility of collaborating with the AfD.
Long regarded as the leading party over the past years, the CDU/CSU is expected to secure around 30 percent of the vote on election day, cementing its position as the primary player in any prospective governmental coalition. Should the AfD achieve its projected support of 20 percent, this would mark the highest percentage the party has ever received, highlighting its rising popularity and influence within the political climate.
The political dynamics showcase the SPD, currently led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, potentially plummeting to 115 seats from their previous high of 25.7 percent at the last election, which would be nearly halved. Meanwhile, the Green Party is estimated to secure around 94 seats. With the smaller parties, Die Linke, BSW, and the FDP vying to cross the 5 percent threshold, the election results could dramatically reshape the Bundestag's composition.
Recent forecasts from YouGov suggest the CDU/CSU is projected to win around 220 of the 630 parliamentary seats. This would make it impossible to establish any government absent the CDU/CSU's involvement. The AfD might claim 145 seats, but their lack of coalition partners would render them the largest opposition faction.
Current projections show the SPD securing about 115 seats, significantly down from their previous standing. The Greens could achieve 94 seats, and Die Linke may enter the parliament with approximately 55 representatives. Consequently, it appears plausible for the Left party to surpass the electoral barrier after benefiting from increasing support and notable campaign momentum.
Compounding the drama, the public protests against the AfD persist, reflecting the growing discontent among many Germans toward the prevailing political elite. Protests have erupted across cities such as Erfurt, Hamburg, and Frankfurt, signaling widespread unease with right-wing extremism.
With the voter sentiment heavily influenced by issues of migration, major parties, including the AfD, have been vocal about needing significant shifts to current policies. On the campaign trail, AfD leader Alice Weidel has sensationally remarked, “Women with headscarves, men with knives on state benefits, and other good-for-nothings will not provide our prosperity.” This inflammatory rhetoric has been met with backlash, compounding tensions surrounding the party’s rising popularity.
Dr. Marcin Kędzierski, political analyst, suggests the result from smaller parties will significantly influence the larger parties’ coalition strategies. “If the BSW, FDP, or Die Linke can surpass the 5 percent threshold, it may provide additional leverage for the CDU,” he explains.
The electoral system employed for the Bundestag involves 630 members where each voter casts two votes—one for individual candidates and another for party lists—ensuring both direct representation and proportional allocation of seats among parties nationwide. Remarkably, the law stipulates parties must achieve either the 5 percent threshold or secure victories in three single-member districts to enter the parliament.
This mechanism not only balances the influence across major and minor parties but is commonly viewed as one of the more equitable and stable electoral models. Amidst these complex dynamics, Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader and candidate for Chancellor, remains confident, proclaiming, “The days of Scholz’s coalition are numbered.” Merz’s optimism, seemingly supported by data, positions him as the preferred candidate to lead the government likely succeeding from the election.
With just hours to go before the polls open, all eyes remain on the strategies the various parties will employ to secure undecided voters. With roughly one-fifth of voters still on the fence about their choice, mobilization efforts are intensifying.
The question now is who will emerge victorious. The stakes are high this Sunday as the elections determine not just the next Chancellor but possibly the direction of Germany’s political future for years to come.