In a recent analysis of the Romanian presidential election, the INSCOP Research survey revealed that George Simion, leader of the AUR party, garnered significantly more votes than his competitor Nicușor Dan across most voter demographics. However, the survey highlighted a notable exception: Dan attracted a larger proportion of young voters and those with higher education.
According to the data, George Simion received a total of 3,862,761 votes, while Nicușor Dan secured 1,979,767 votes. This stark difference of nearly two million votes underscores the varying appeal of the two candidates among different segments of the electorate.
Remus Ștefureac, the founder and director of INSCOP Research, noted that while Simion had significant support from voters with primary education and men, particularly in the 30-44 age group, Dan's strength lay in his appeal to younger voters aged 18-29 and those with higher education. "George Simion obtained significantly more votes than Nicușor Dan in all categories of voters, except for the young (18-29) and voters with higher education," Ștefureac stated on his Facebook account.
The survey, conducted on election day, involved a representative sample of 4,490 respondents, of which 2,455 expressed valid votes. The maximum margin of error for the survey was 2%. The results provide valuable insights into the preferences of the Romanian electorate and highlight the demographic divides influencing the election.
Simion's support base appears to be more conservative, with a significant number of votes coming from individuals with lower educational attainment. This demographic is often more attuned to economic and social issues that resonate with their daily lives. In contrast, Nicușor Dan’s appeal to young voters reflects a desire for change and reform, particularly among those who prioritize transparency and progressive policies.
Interestingly, the survey also revealed gender dynamics in voting patterns. George Simion was predominantly supported by men, while Nicușor Dan enjoyed equal backing from both men and women, indicating a more balanced appeal among the latter's supporters.
As the election approaches its final round, the importance of voter turnout cannot be overstated. Ștefureac emphasized that if turnout increases significantly, by 1.5 to 2 million votes, the dynamics of the election could shift dramatically. "If we have the same voter turnout as on May 4, the outcome will be clear. However, if participation rises significantly on May 18, then the final contest could be competitive," he warned.
This potential for a shift in voter turnout raises questions about both candidates' strategies moving forward. Nicușor Dan's chances of winning the presidency hinge on mobilizing young voters and those with higher education to increase their participation in the upcoming election. Conversely, Simion's campaign may focus on maintaining the support of his existing voter base while also attempting to appeal to undecided voters.
In summary, the INSCOP Research survey paints a complex picture of the Romanian electorate, with distinct preferences emerging based on age, education, and gender. As the candidates prepare for the final round of voting, the dynamics revealed in this survey will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping their strategies and ultimately determining the outcome of the presidential race.
