Since the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian rule on August 5, 2024, the geopolitical environment of South Asia is facing transformative shifts. These changes are prominently marked by two significant developments: the worsening of relations between India and Bangladesh, and the unexpectedly warm overtures between Dhaka and Islamabad.
At the beginning of 2024, Bangladesh stood as a pivotal example of India’s successful neighborhood-first policy. Fast forward to now, it has transformed dramatically, becoming emblematic of the limits of India’s influence. The primary reason behind this deterioration, according to various commentary, lies in Bangladesh's growing independence and Grievances with India.
One cannot overlook the other substantial shift occurring concurrently. The burgeoning camaraderie between Bangladesh and Pakistan has sent ripples across the region. Historically, Bangladesh emerged from Pakistan's shadow during the Liberation War of 1971, thanks to India's assist. Yet, recent months have witnessed these two nations taking significant steps to bolster military and intelligence cooperation.
Dr. Mohammad Yunus, Bangladesh's current interim ruler, has shown little initiative to reconcile with India. Rather, he has prioritized enhancing relations with Pakistan. A notable moment was his meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif at the D-8 Summit held in Cairo back in December 2024, where Yunus called for addressing long-standing grievances from 1971. This development unexpectedly pivoted the nations closer. Following this, the Bangladeshi military participated in Pakistan's prominent multilateral naval exercise known as "Aman."
Reports suggest meetings between military chiefs of the two nations, including discussions surrounding collaborative strategies and intelligence sharing. Insights shared by Satyaki Chakraborty reveal the significant shift as Pakistan’s intelligence chief visited Dhaka for talks, which the parties involved have kept vague but undeniably suggests collaboration.
India's concerns have intensified with these developments. Three security-related apprehensions emerge distinctly: first, the release of radicals from Bangladeshi prisons with anti-Indian sentiments could escalate tension; second, rising incidents of anti-Hindu violence are contributing to the discontent within India's political sphere, pressuring the Modi government; and third, the potential use of Bangladesh as leverage against India’s Northeast presents alarming strategic risks.
For Pakistan, rekindling ties with Bangladesh serves as both a strategic move and symbolic end to its geopolitical isolation, especially after India strengthened bonds with Afghanistan—a close ally of Pakistan. Islamabad sees this as its chance to regain relevance within the South Asian spectrum through deepening ties with Bangladesh.
Bangladesh appears to yearn for freedom from Indian dominance as it strives to carve out its identity post-Hasina. This sentiment is tangible, as the present leadership, including Yunus, seemingly equates independence from Hasina’s regime with liberations from India’s influence. Compounding their geopolitical maneuvering is the election of Donald Trump, whose administration has so far shown less inclination to support Bangladesh diplomatically or financially, leaving the country feeling vulnerable and more inclined toward partnerships with Pakistan and China.
With these new alliances materializing, concerns grow over Bangladesh's ties to the larger geopolitical narrative, particularly China's role. Beijing is seizing opportunities to invest economically, promising debts management concessions, and favorable terms for projects, including the expansion of metro rail and infrastructure initiatives. China’s strategic interests align closely with both Bangladesh and Pakistan, which inevitably affects the delicate balance of power, particularly concerning India.
On the economic front, trade dynamics could reshape as Pakistan positions itself to replace some Indian supplies for Bangladesh, potentially paving the way for broader economic engagement through Free Trade Agreements. Efforts to increase trade and economic commitments signal Pakistan’s intent to reestablish itself as Bangladesh's significant partner.
Meanwhile, the United States' stance seems tepid under the new administration, offering little guidance or renewed interest particularly with regards to South Asia, which has left Bangladesh poised between its need for support and the shifting allegiances surrounding it.
Summarising the current climate, the alliance between Bangladesh and Pakistan presents dozens of potent challenges—ranging from economic sabotage, heightened tensions with India, to increasingly militarized borders. The continuous collaboration with China for economic support adds another layer of complexity to this already volatile situation. Without significant intervention, analysts predict the region may face debilitating instability, with the triadic relationship between India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh becoming increasingly fraught with tensions.