A recent study by consulting firm Yakobs and Partners has exposed the immense economic potential of generative artificial intelligence (AI) within BRICS nations, projecting possible earnings between $350 billion and $600 billion by 2030. This phenomenon encapsulates not only the direct financial gains but also forecasts an overall impact of generative AI contributing significantly to the regional economies, up to $1.4 trillion, accounting for 20% of AI's total economic effect.
The report titled "Generative AI in BRICS+: Trends and Prospects" indicates uneven growth rates across the BRICS nations, highlighting China's progressive advancements against the more cautious trajectories of Russia and the UAE, who are just beginning to deploy their models actively. By mid-2023, China had already launched generative solutions matching Western levels, showcasing the rapid pace at which it has embraced AI technology.
According to the research, 54% of Russian firms reported they had implemented generative AI technology at least within one functional area by the summer of 2024. This data reveals the significant strides some nations within the bloc have made, compared to their counterparts. While countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa are starting to catch up, there remains considerable disparity influenced by the economic size and digital infrastructure disparities within these nations.
The study warns, though, against complacency, noting the competitive pressure from the United States, which remains at the forefront of technological advancements. By the end of 2024, BRICS+ nations are anticipated to be closely aligned with American developments—thanks largely to China's initiatives—emphasizing the need for collaborative efforts among member states.
The potential for growth appears to be concentrated heavily within six key sectors: banking, retail, engineering, energy, electronics, and information technology. Experts predict nearly 70% of prospective benefits from generative AI deployment will see their manifestation primarily within these industries. Particularly, the banking sector stands out as the largest beneficiary, contributing 20% of the expected impact across companies, with the IT sector reaping nearly one-third of the anticipated economic effect, driven by the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) adept at handling code.
Geographically speaking, China dominates the picture with over 86% of the total expected effect attributable to its economic might. Following behind are India, Brazil, and Russia, which collectively contribute only 12%, with the rest of the countries within BRICS+ falling under 2%. This distribution emphasizes the correlation between the economic scale and the ability to innovate within AI.
The experts of Yakobs and Partners pinpoint five primary areas for enhanced cooperation among BRICS+ nations aimed at advancing generative AI:
- Joint model and product development.
- Sharing of computational capacity and data.
- Training and education focused on AI.
- Establishing self-regulatory organizations.
- Developing regulatory frameworks.
Maxim Bolotskikh, a partner at Yakobs and Partners, stressed the importance of such international collaborations. He mentioned, "The BRICS alliance aims to bolster the economic and technological potential of member states, including regulations surrounding generative AI. During the recent summit, the bloc ratified measures to create a global framework to mitigate the risks associated with AI, ensuring inclusivity and resilience to combat digital divides among nations."
The anticipated impact of generative AI can reshape how economies approach technology as more businesses look toward integration and collaboration. The power dynamics within technology, especially AI, substantiate the need for BRICS nations to recalibrate their strategies to counterbalance the U.S.'s dominance effectively. By recognizing and nurturing the capabilities within their individual markets, nations can strategically position themselves to emerge as leaders on the global stage.
Looking forward to 2030, Russia's national strategy forecasts GDP growth attributable to AI technologies reaching 11.2 trillion rubles. Meanwhile, the anticipated boom symbolizes not only economic benefit but also encompasses significant advancements within the AI service sector, projected to evolve toward 60 billion rubles annually.
Conclusively, the imperative for cooperative and concerted efforts among BRICS nations is clear. The way forward lies not only within individual successes but also through progressive partnerships capable of matching the technological realities of leading countries globally.