General Waldemar Skrzypczak, the former commander of the Land Forces and former Deputy Minister of Defense of Poland, has recently shared his analysis of the war between Russia and Ukraine, now entering its third year. Reflecting on the conflict's devastating consequences and the lessons learned, he provides valuable insights on the initial strategies employed by the Russian military and the unexpected resilience displayed by Ukrainian forces.
The war began on February 24, 2022, but as Skrzypczak notes, the Russian approach was marked by grave miscalculations. “The Russians underestimated the preparations of the Ukrainians for this operation. Hence the failure,” he asserted during his interview with Artur Bartkiewicz on Rzecz w tym. This early underestimation led to dramatic unexpected outcomes for the Russian army, which initially advanced with smaller forces than anticipated—merely “a 2 to 1 advantage” instead of the expected “4 or 5 to 1.”
This initial phase saw Russia encountering significant resistance at key battlefronts, including Kyiv and Kharkiv. Surprisingly, they achieved unexpected success to the south, crossing the Dnieper, which Skrzypczak describes as “one of the mysteries of this war.” Fortunately for Ukraine, the advance was eventually halted, illustrating the unpredictable nature of the conflict.
Despite these early setbacks, Skrzypczak warns against dismissing the Russian military strategy. He emphasized, “The Russian army has changed; it has become dangerous.” The transition from maneuver warfare to trench warfare, resembling tactics from World War I, took many observers by surprise, as Skrzypczak reflected, “We are all shocked because we were trained and prepared differently for modern operations.”
By mid-2022, the conflict had shifted dramatically, with the Russian army resorting to positional warfare, where artillery once again became the “god of war,” according to Skrzypczak. He underscored the significant role of artillery as one of the most decisive elements affecting success on the battlefield.
Adding to the complexity of modern warfare, the extensive use of drones by both sides has revolutionized the battlefield. Skrzypczak noted, “Nobody expected drones to dominate the airspace over Ukraine. This is a revolution; it is the golden age of drones.” His observations highlight how technological advancements have reshaped the dynamics of modern military engagements.
Looking toward future strategic operations, Skrzypczak emphasizes the significance of the Ukrainian counteroffensive launched later, which managed to recapture some territories lost to Russia. The frank discussion of intelligence-gathering effectiveness sheds light on the factors contributing to these successes. Yet, he criticizes the Ukrainian decision to strike where they indicated plans, allowing Russian forces to prepare defenses, stating, “This was the beginning of all subsequent failures for the Ukrainian army, as they lost offensive potential.”
According to estimates, the human toll of the war has been staggering, with reports indicating high casualty rates on both sides—between 100,000 and 200,000 for Russia and around 100,000 for Ukraine, along with hundreds of thousands of wounded. The impact extends beyond the battlefield; the population of Ukraine has dropped from 42 million pre-war to approximately 34 million by early 2024, as millions fled their homes, creating one of the largest refugee crises since World War II.
Skrzypczak also highlights the long-term economic repercussions faced by Ukraine, including significant GDP declines and increases in unemployment triggered by the conflict. The war, he suggests, reshaped not only the regional balance of power but also the global perception of military engagements and the responses of NATO allies.
Despite these challenges, Skrzypczak believes there is still room for optimism. He urges Europe to learn from the successes of the Ukrainian military, stating, “We should not let Ukraine fall; we cannot afford to allow someone from Moscow to win elections there.” He envisions stronger European military capabilities taking shape over the next few years, potentially creating parity or even superiority over Russian forces.
“Ukrainians do not need to be part of NATO,” he concludes, “but they must remain our allies.” This poignant call to action encapsulates the urgency with which he believes Europe must respond to the changing security dynamics posed by Russia. General Skrzypczak's insights serve as both a sobering reflection on the current state of the war and as imperative lessons for international relations and military strategy moving forward.