Russia’s manipulation of gas supplies to the breakaway region of Transnistria is creating ripples of instability as Moldova approaches parliamentary elections slated for early February. Political experts posit this as part of Russia's broader scheme to exert influence over Moldova and instigate chaos within its borders.
The alarm bells were sounded by Moldovan political scientist Roman Russu, who emphasized the timing of Russia’s actions as intentional and politically charged. "Russia is acting — and will continue to act — both informationally, as it has in the past, and electorally, as we saw during the presidential elections. This is certain," he noted during his appearance on Espreso TV.
Concerns ramped up significantly on December 9 when Transnistria's self-proclaimed leader, Vadim Krasnoselsky, declared a state of economic emergency. This step was taken due to rising fears over potential cuts to Russian gas supplies via Ukraine. Following this, on December 16, Moldova itself declared a 60-day state of emergency within its energy sector, acknowledging the impending energy crisis.
The situation escalated on December 21 when Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced significant changes, stating Ukraine would stop transiting Russian gas starting January 1, 2024. Coupled with Moldova’s own energy troubles, this could pressure the economy and heighten public anxiety.
Russia is not merely manipulating energy supplies for economic leverage; it's also engaging in psychological tactics aimed at destabilizing Moldova. Reports from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) accused Moldovan President Maia Sandu of preparing for military maneuvers to regain control over Transnistria. These claims have been met with outright denials from Moldovan officials, who labeled them as "serious and dangerous disinformation, intended to incite panic and distrust."
Adrian Balutel, chief of staff to President Sandu, emphasized the absurdity of the accusations, reiterative of Moldova's commitment to peaceful conflict resolution. He highlighted the need for the withdrawal of Russian military presence from Transnistria, which is recognized as Moldovan territory by international law.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, has cautioned about the influence of misinformation and the possibility of Russia laying the groundwork for what is known as a false flag operation. This tactic could be part of Russia's strategy by manipulating public sentiment against the pro-Western government of Moldova as the event of parliamentary elections looms closer.
Russu asserts this behavior is part of Russia's toolbox to destabilize and create fear within Moldova. "Russia had the option to avoid this. They could have supplied gas through Türkiye, but they intentionally created this crisis to impact Moldovan society directly," he stated. "They want to destabilize the country to boost pro-Russian sentiment during elections, raising the stakes for the population, who are already fearful of conflict."
The looming energy crisis is particularly significant for Moldova, where most citizens are grappling with the dual pressures of rising costs and the specter of war, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to heighten regional tensions. Historic fears are on the rise: "If Ukraine falls, Moldova is the next country in line," warns German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, reflecting the widespread anxiety surrounding the impact of the war.
What remains abundantly clear is the nuanced battle for influence and the delicate balance of power at play. Moldova's government is attempting to navigate the storm, seeking stability and support from the West amid baseless accusations from Russia. Prime Minister Dorin Recean commented on the disinformation campaigns being launched against the government, declaring, "I am once again observing...a campaign of disinformation and even hysteria. It's part of Russia's hybrid war against us."
Much of the focus is now on how Moldova will respond to these perceived threats. The proactive measures being considered include strengthening national defenses and enhancing collaborations with Western allies to bolster national security. Observers remain vigilant, questioning whether Moldova can effectively fend off external influences and misinformation as it endeavors to solidify its sovereignty.
The narrative surrounding Transnistria, highlighted by gas supply strategies and military posturing, emphasizes the need for vigilance against misinformation. Each political maneuver, be it from Moscow or Chisinau, will have rippling effects, particularly as Moldova stands at the crossroads of its future amid international pressure and internal vulnerabilities.
The coming weeks will be pivotal for Moldova as it braces for the ramifications of potential energy shortages and questionable Russian tactics. Building resilience against external threats is more important than ever as the nation prepares for elections with lasting consequences.
