The relationship between the United States and China is at a pivotal point as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House in 2025. This transition arrives at a time when China, under President Xi Jinping's leadership, has solidified its role as an assertive global power, increasingly adapting to the challenges posed by its American counterpart. The bilateral relationship has long been characterized by rivalry, mistrust, and fierce competition. Yet, amid growing tensions, both nations share the potential to collaborate on significant global issues.
One of the most pressing challenges facing this relationship is cybersecurity. Recently, the Biden administration unveiled details of the “Salt Typhoon” cyber breach, which it attributes to Chinese espionage efforts. According to Anne Neuberger, deputy national security advisor for cyber and emergent technologies, the reality is stark: “China is targeting the United States' infrastructure.”
During a recent briefing, Neuberger outlined the alarming scope of the Salt Typhoon breach, which implicated nine telecommunications companies. Among them, one was linked to over 100,000 compromised routers due to inadequate cybersecurity measures. Neuberger emphasized the need for companies to improve their basic security protocols and asserted, “Let’s lock down this infrastructure, and frankly, let’s hold the Chinese accountable for this.” This statement highlights the urgency of addressing cybersecurity vulnerabilities, especially as key infrastructure increasingly becomes the focus of state-sponsored attacks.
Under President Biden, the administration has also implemented various sanctions, including raising tariffs and reviewing contracts to strengthen cybersecurity within government entities. The increasing pressure denotes not only the economic rivalry but also the pivotal role cybersecurity plays within national security strategy. Chas Freeman, former US assistant secretary of defense, remarked, “The United States is engaged in economic warfare against China, and China is now firing back.”
The future dynamics will inevitably be influenced by Trump’s upcoming presidency. His historically hardline stance on China stirred tensions during his previous term, leading many experts, including Scott Kennedy from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to question, “Does the Trump administration seek a grand bargain with China to stabilize ties, or does it see China as a rival?”
Despite the entrenched disputes over issues like human rights and territorial sovereignty, the potential for cooperation exists. Trump recently expressed the need for both nations to “work together to solve all of the problems of the world.” Such collaboration would be ambitious yet necessary, especially when considering global crises like the war in Ukraine and the need for climate action.
Currently, mistrust runs high between the two nations, complicatpng efforts at significant rapprochement. Douglas H. Paal of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace warned, “Both sides have addressed thorny issues... but not enduring stability.” This sentiment resonates with many experts who caution against overestimations of future cooperation.
On the trade front, Trump’s revival could see the reinstatement of aggressive tariffs, with exit strategies from the previous administration's decisions seeming improbable. Gary Hufbauer, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, warned, “The way out requires some reduction of tariffs and export controls by both countries.” A heavy reliance on tariffs to reshuffle manufacturing locations does not appear to be yielding positive outcomes for American jobs or industry, as evidenced by observations of many observers during Trump’s earlier term.
Looking toward 2025, all eyes will be on the leadership dynamics of both countries. David J. Firestein of the George H.W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations emphasized, “Things can’t get appreciably worse, and I think we can achieve this with wise leadership on both sides.” His cautious optimism is reiterated by numerous analysts who urge focusing not purely on the competitive aspects, but rather exploring tangible areas for cooperation.
Efforts like reopening channels for discussion surrounding cyber threats and climate change, as well as addressing public health crises, will need to leverage good will wherever possible. While opportunities present themselves to work collectively toward solutions, the ability to manage bad moments effectively is equally important.
Despite the challenges, there is hope on the horizon, mirrored by the sentiments of Steve Orlins of the National Committee on United States-China Relations. Orlins noted, “When you have channels of communication, you can still find places to cooperate.” While tensions may rise and fall, fostering dialogue could provide the pathway to navigate complicated geopolitical waters—and prevent the relationship from eroding too deeply.
Consequently, as 2025 approaches, the future of US-China relations remains uncertain. Both powers must navigate the fine balance between competition and cooperation, especially with the specter of cybersecurity threats looming large. The complex geopolitical stage demands not only strategic maneuvering but also sincere efforts to engage constructively.
