The start of 2025 has seen significant increases to gasoline prices across Mexico, stirring up concern and disappointment among consumers as they begin the new year. According to Petrointelligence, the national average price of gasoline as of January 1, 2025, stood at 24.04 pesos per liter for Magna, 25.39 pesos for Premium, and 25.73 pesos for diesel. While these averages provide some insight, many motorists across the country are facing prices exceeding 28 pesos per liter, particularly those filling up at stations located in strategic areas.
For example, Jalisco reported the highest gasoline rates, with Premium reaching 28.19 pesos, followed by Nayarit at 27.99 pesos and Oaxaca at 27.90 pesos. These increases, alongside the economic pressures of inflation and international oil prices, have the potential to impact household budgets significantly. Petrointelligence estimates the average cost for filling various vehicle types can exceed 1,000 pesos for compact cars, with the price climbing higher for larger vehicles.
The political ramifications of these price hikes have not gone unnoticed. Leaders from the National Action Party (PAN) and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) expressed their frustrations at the recent increases, which they term the 'gasolinazo.' Noemí Luna and Rubén Moreira criticized the ruling Morena party, highlighting broken promises to limit price hikes. Luna pointed to video footage where President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) previously condemned similar price increases, urging voters to hold the current government accountable for their commitments.
On the other hand, President López Obrador's administration, including prominent members like Claudia Sheinbaum, has adamantly defended their actions. During one of her press conferences, Sheinbaum acknowledged the rising costs but assured citizens of government efforts to engage with fuel suppliers to manage these costs and prevent unreasonable spikes. She emphasized the absence of price caps for gasoline, noting how the 2013 Energy Reform removed maximum price regulations.
Price fluctuations are not only attributed to local factors but also to international market conditions and fiscal policies. Recent commentary from Alejandro Montufar, CEO of PetroIntelligence, pointed out the adjustments to the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS), which increased rates by 4.5 percent, directly reflecting inflation rates from the past year. These adjustments mean gasoline prices inherently rise along with inflationary trends. For 2025, the taxes will see Magna priced at 6.46 pesos per liter, Premium at 5.45 pesos, and diesel at 7.09 pesos.
The tax hike is supposed to cushion the effects of inflation on consumers, but there are concerns this could instead lead to surging costs at the pump. The SHCP aims to reduce the tax burden by applying stimulus measures on regular gasoline, offsetting some of the costs temporarily. Yet, this offer is not extended to Premium fuel, raising disappointment among those who rely on higher-grade products.
Through the early part of 2025, consumers may face difficult choices as they confront rising costs. Many vehicle owners are already feeling the financial strain as prices vary greatly between states. For example, regular gasoline reportedly costs around 24.76 pesos per liter across regions, but spikes to over 28 pesos per liter at select locations, resulting in discontent among the driving populace—especially as the nation holds discussions around energy policy.
Today's prices reflect the broader challenges facing the Mexican economy as it grapples with the normal ebb and flow of supply and demand, coupled with higher global oil prices driven mostly by geopolitical tensions and economic posturing. This volatile environment has forced consumers to reflect on their fuel consumption, leading many to reconsider transportation options and driving habits.
With these challenges at the forefront, it remains to be seen how citizens will adapt to these price increases, as they do every year. Understanding the trends, especially around the starts of new years, might help them to plan for the changes and mitigate their impact as they navigate their day-to-day lives.