The oil price has fallen sharply in recent months, and this decline is being felt at the pump as fuel prices drop to their lowest levels since late 2021. Starting Tuesday, May 6, 2025, maximum prices for gasoline and diesel will decrease significantly, marking a welcome relief for drivers and homeowners alike.
According to the Federal Public Service (FPS) Economy, the maximum price for gasoline 95 (E10) will decrease by 2.8 euro cents to 1.594 euros per liter. Similarly, the price for gasoline 98 (E5) will also drop by 2.8 euro cents, settling at 1.667 euros per liter. Diesel (B7) will see a corresponding reduction, with a maximum price set at 1.641 euros per liter, also a decrease of 2.8 euro cents.
This downward trend in fuel prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including fluctuations in international oil prices and the recent decision by the OPEC+ oil cartel to increase production. Since the start of 2025, the price of a barrel of Brent oil has plummeted from around 75 dollars to just over 60 dollars.
Moreover, the price of heating oil has also seen a significant decline. Last week, the maximum price for deliveries of at least 2,000 liters fell by 2.1 euro cents to 0.71 euros per liter, the lowest level since December 2021. Homeowners will find themselves paying approximately 350 euros less for 2,000 liters of heating oil compared to a year ago.
The current economic climate, influenced by the protectionist policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump and ongoing conflicts among oil-producing nations, has contributed to this decline. Concerns over the impact of these policies have put pressure on oil prices, leading to a surplus in supply.
As the OPEC+ coalition announced on Saturday, May 3, 2025, that it would increase oil production, international oil prices continued to drop. This decision has raised eyebrows, as it comes at a time when demand is already low due to economic uncertainties. According to Mathieu Blondeel, an energy expert at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, "Within OPEC+, there is considerable discontent among a few members. Countries like Kazakhstan, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates are not adhering to agreed production quotas, which complicates the situation further."
Saudi Arabia, the most influential member of OPEC+, is pushing for increased production to maintain its dominance in the market. Blondeel explains, "Saudi Arabia can produce oil at a much lower cost. When prices drop, it affects higher-cost producers, forcing them out of the market." This strategy has been employed by Saudi Arabia in the past to pressure other countries into compliance with production agreements.
The economic uncertainty surrounding the oil market is compounded by the sluggish performance of the U.S. economy. The latest reports indicate that the U.S. economy, the largest in the world, contracted in the last quarter, raising fears of a recession. The International Energy Agency recently adjusted its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 downwards, suggesting that demand will continue to weaken into 2026.
Blondeel notes that this situation poses challenges for the U.S. shale oil sector, which relies on higher prices to remain viable. He states, "The lower prices are bad news for them, as they produce relatively expensive oil. Trump's call for increased production is clashing with economic realities. The mantra of 'drill baby drill' is not becoming a reality under these circumstances."
The upcoming changes in fuel prices are expected to bring some relief to consumers who have been grappling with high energy costs. As the maximum prices for gasoline and diesel drop, many are hopeful that this trend will continue, providing a much-needed boost to household budgets.
In conclusion, the combination of increased oil production, lower demand, and economic uncertainty has led to a significant drop in fuel prices, marking the lowest levels seen in nearly four years. As consumers prepare to fill up their tanks this week, they can expect to benefit from these reductions, which reflect broader trends in the global oil market.
