Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is poised to become Germany's next Chancellor following the recent and closely contested legislative elections held on February 23, 2024. His party, which includes the Christian Social Union (CSU), narrowly secured 28.6% of the votes, marking their return to power after years of leadership under the Social Democratic Party (SPD). While the CDU/CSU's win is significant, it fell short of the symbolic 30% threshold, which complicates coalition negotiations.
Merz's CDU coalition will have to navigate alliance talks, potentially involving the SPD, which garnered 16.4% of the votes. The SPD leader and outgoing chancellor, Olaf Scholz, expressed his disappointment but remains committed to ensuring stability within the government structure.
At 69 years old, Merz has re-entered the political spotlight after nearly two decades away from it, during which he built wealth and prestige in the finance sector. Having previously served as the opposition leader and having tried unsuccessfully to lead the CDU against Merkel, his return signals both continuity and change within German conservatism. Merz has described himself as part of the middle class, emphasizing the values instilled by his parents - hard work, discipline, and respect.
His political ideologies skew heavily conservative, particularly on social issues, where he has opposed same-sex civil unions and criticized recent cannabis legalization efforts, which was initiated by the previous government. He has also been accused of aligning too closely with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which saw unprecedented support, garnering 20.8% of the election votes. This has raised concerns about the normalization of extremist views within mainstream politics.
“Those who have only ever done politics lack real-life experience,” Merz stated during his campaign, asserting his business background gives him the practical knowledge needed for governance. This sentiment resonates with parts of the electorate disillusioned by traditional political elites. His stance on immigration is similarly stringent, advocating for stricter border controls and tighter citizenship requirements.
Despite the controversies surrounding his political history and financial ties—especially with the powerful investment firm BlackRock—Merz’s supporters argue his economic savvy is precisely what Germany needs as it faces mounting financial pressures and external threats. “The radical left has gained ground, and questions about purchasing power and pensions play against Merz's profile, but his expertise lends him some credibility on economic matters,” noted Paul Maurice, Secretary-General of the Franco-German Committee for Studies.
Merz's historic electoral win brings immediate challenges, particularly coalition-building. His public declaration against forming alliances with the AfD seeks to mitigate backlash but complicates governance. Observers note the importance of his upcoming negotiations, as public sentiment may shift depending on the coalition's composition.
Internationally, Merz signals a return to traditional diplomatic relations, firmly positioning himself as pro-European Union and supportive of strengthening NATO initiatives. Following his electoral success, he reaffirmed the urgent need for Europe to take more responsibility for its defense, aligning with French President Emmanuel Macron's calls for greater European sovereignty. “We are more determined than ever to achieve great things together for France and Germany,” Merz remarked, portraying his leadership as pivotal for Franco-German relations.
Merz's capacity to lead effectively will depend on not just forming coalitions but also managing divergent expectations within his party and across the broader German political spectrum. His past critiques of Scholz may come back to haunt him if he appears to compromise too much during coalition talks.
Political analysts suggest Merz’s win may signify changing tides within Germany's political framework. “His election marks the return of classical conservatism; yet his age raises questions about succession management,” commented Maurice, indicating uncertainty within the CDU’s long-term strategy.
The CDU must tread carefully as it rebuilds its political identity, ensuring it does not alienate moderate voters following its coalition negotiations. Observers of German politics will undoubtedly keep a close eye on Merz’s actions and policy implementations as he embarks on this new chapter, shaping the future for Germany during challenging times.