Recent opinion polls from leading German broadcasters ARD and ZDF are painting a troubling picture for Friedrich Merz as he heads the Union party's campaign for the upcoming Bundestag election. Despite the Union's steady lead over other political parties, Merz's personal approval ratings have taken a serious hit, raising concerns about his prospects as the election draws nearer.
New survey results have shown the percentage of respondents satisfied with Merz plummeting from 34% to just 25%. This marks the lowest figure recorded by the ARD since it began tracking public opinion for the upcoming election. To put this dip in perspective, these approval ratings are comparable to those of Armin Laschet, the Union's previous candidate, who faced severe backlash after his infamous reaction during the crisis caused by flooding in 2021.
The polls indicate not just Merz's faltering popularity but also hint at shifting sentiments among the electorate. According to ZDF, his approval has also dropped by two percentage points on the direct election question, where only 27% of respondents claimed they would support him. Meanwhile, support for the Union by both polling agencies would translate to around 31%, reflecting another minor decline.
Who stands to gain from Merz's misfortunes? Robert Habeck of the Green Party appears to be the main beneficiary. His popularity has surged, with survey results placing him at the top of the politician satisfaction rankings at 28%. This marks a significant improvement from October, where he was near the bottom. Habeck has aligned closely with the growing voter sentiment, as demonstrated by his discussion focused on the need for financial assistance to families, proposing yearly relief of approximately 1,000 Euros.
Habeck, currently tied with Merz at 27% concerning hypothetical direct elections, has leaned hard on his party's criticisms against the Union. Speaking on German television, he accused the Union of engaging in what he called "große Wählertäuschung," or gross voter deception. He elaborated on his frustrations, asserting, "Die Union vergackeiert die Bevölkerung," which means, "the Union is deceiving the population," pointing directly to the party’s unsubstantiated election promises for tax relief.
Notably, the Green party may find itself depending on coalition opportunities, as their own percentages hover only between 12 to 15% according to various polls. A coalition with the Union remains complicated, as Markus Söder, the CSU chairman, has publicly spoken against such partnerships.
While Habeck remains focused on campaign promises and rising popularity, he has warned against diminishing the importance of all democratic parties. He urged common ground among Union, SPD, FDP, and Greens to avoid the pitfalls of right-wing collaborations, similar to recent political shifts seen across Europe.
On foreign policy matters, Habeck emphasized the need for Germany to take Donald Trump's second presidential run seriously. He echoed sentiments recognizing the potential repercussions of Trump's statements on NATO and trade. This part of his analysis sought to highlight the broader dynamics surrounding cooperation within European positions against growing right-wing sentiments globally. He commended Scholz for rebuffing Trump's demands but criticized Merz's handling of the matter, claiming one should not easily submit to Trump.
Habeck recently reiterated his calls for increasing defense expenditures to respond to Germany's changing security demands, signaling the importance of financial planning as it ties back to political stability at home. He suggested moving beyond outdated fiscal rules like the debt brake to enable more flexible spending aimed at national defense.
With these shifting dynamics mere weeks before the election, all eyes will be on how both Merz and Habeck adapt their strategies amid emergent political realities. The outcome may reflect not only their individual fates but the future of major parties within Germany as well.