Recent polling data reveals significant shifts in the Italian political landscape, with Fratelli d'Italia (FdI) maintaining its status as the leading party. According to the latest Supermedia Youtrend/Agi released on April 17, 2025, FdI has reached 29.4%, gaining half a percentage point from previous weeks. This trend is bolstered by the party's strong performance, as it continues to lead the polls ahead of the Democratic Party (PD), which has seen a decline in support.
Specifically, the PD, led by Elly Schlein, has dropped to 22.3%, marking its lowest point since the last European elections. This downturn can be attributed to various factors, including internal divisions over the party's stance on European rearmament and support for Ukraine, which have not resonated well with all factions within the party.
Meanwhile, the Five Star Movement (M5S) remains stable, holding at 12.1%, which is an encouraging sign for party leader Giuseppe Conte, especially given its previous struggles. The M5S's stability reflects a resilience amidst the shifting political tides, as it has managed to maintain its support level in the face of challenges.
On the other hand, Forza Italia is stable at 9.4%, while the Lega has slipped slightly to 8.6%, a decrease of 0.2%. The Alleanza Verdi Sinistra has also seen a minor decline, settling at 6.1%. Notably, the centrist party Azione has made a significant leap, now at 3.5%, marking a 0.6% increase. This surge highlights a growing interest in centrist politics, particularly as the PD struggles to consolidate its base.
The latest data illustrates that the center-right coalition, which includes FdI, Forza Italia, and Lega, collectively holds 48.5% of voter support, a notable increase of 4.8% since the last elections in 2022. In contrast, the center-left coalition, which includes the PD and M5S, has garnered only 30.2%. However, when considering the broader 'campo largo' coalition, which includes the M5S, the total support rises to 42.3%. Even more significantly, if the 'campo larghissimo' coalition, which encompasses Azione and Italia Viva, is factored in, the total support reaches 48.2%.
As the political scene evolves, Giorgia Meloni, the leader of FdI, is poised for a crucial meeting on April 18, 2025, with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House. This meeting is anticipated to have significant implications for the Italian economy and may influence Italy's standing in European affairs.
In a parallel survey conducted by the Noto Sondaggi Institute for 'Porta a Porta,' FdI has risen to 31%, further solidifying its lead. The PD, in this survey, has fallen to 22%, while the M5S has gained ground, now at 13%. The Lega and Forza Italia both experienced declines, with the Lega at 9% and Forza Italia at 8.5%. The Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra remains steady at 5.5%, while Azione holds at 3%. Italia Viva and +Europa are stable at 2.5% and 2%, respectively. However, Noi Moderati has dropped to 1.5%.
Overall, the center-right coalition has seen a slight dip to 50%, while the center-left coalition has decreased to 29.5%. The potential for a 'campo largo' coalition now stands at 48%, reflecting a loss of 0.5% from previous polling. Additionally, a notable 45% of voters remain undecided or abstaining, indicating a significant portion of the electorate is still navigating their preferences.
The data from these surveys reflects a complex and dynamic political landscape in Italy, with shifting allegiances and emerging parties vying for voter support. As the political climate continues to change, the upcoming weeks will be critical in determining how these trends will play out in the lead-up to future elections.
