François Bayrou, recently appointed as Prime Minister of France, is currently facing significant challenges as he works to form his government. Announced on December 13, 2024, his administration has yet to see the light of day due to political negotiations and internal disagreements, as the clock ticks down to Christmas when he aims to finalize his cabinet.
With President Emmanuel Macron’s return to France after official visits to Djibouti and Ethiopia, the spotlight is on the Élysée Palace where Bayrou has been consulting with Macron intensively. Reports indicate their discussions have highlighted several contentious points, particularly concerning the appointments for the ministries of Foreign Affairs and Economy and Finance. According to BFM TV, significant points of contention include the roles being considered for key political figures such as Xavier Bertrand of the Les Républicains (French Republicans) party.
Bayrou’s intention to present his government has been met with tension, as he was initially expected to make the announcement but found himself unable to deliver even by Sunday. Close sources indicated he was working on the “last adjustments” with Macron but noted the complexity of assembling his team. This combination of anticipated unity and existing strife paints the atmosphere as heavy and fraught with uncertainty.
Potential candidates for Bayrou's administration include some unexpected alliances, with former Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne and former Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin being floated for significant roles. Among the left, François Rebsamen, acknowledged for his reliable relationship with Bayrou, expressed willingness to join the government, which brings both hope and scrutiny to the new administration. "Mon sort personnel n’a aucune espèce d’importance," Buffet has been quoted, emphasizing the importance of governmental continuity over personal placement.
While some insiders express concern about the delays, noting, "C’est en train de virer au sketch, plutôt à la mauvaise farce," the sentiment isn’t universal. Bayrou is evidently attempting to create a more inclusive cabinet and garner broader support across party lines. Thomas Ménagé from the Rassemblement National added, "Le plus important, ce n’est pas le casting," signaling the significance of the policies over personnel, which many see as pivotal for Bayrou's impending success.
Despite the optimism displayed by some, critics are quick to point out the fragile legitimacy of Bayrou’s leadership, with the likes of Jean-Luc Mélenchon from the left stating, "Les mêmes causes produiront les mêmes effets," asserting skepticism about the government’s projected stability, especially concerning budgetary majorities. These voices predict potential legislative conflicts as the opposition appears ready to challenge Bayrou’s cabinet from the outset.
Public sentiment surrounding Bayrou’s ability to govern is becoming increasingly tenuous. Recent polls show his approval ratings at record lows, indicating deep-seated public skepticism toward his leadership from the moment he stepped up to fill the role. Ian Brossat, from the Communist Party, stressed, "Sa légitimité est extrêmement faible," reflecting the broader doubts about Bayrou’s capacity to navigate the political waters of contemporary France effectively.
Flexibility and astuteness will likely be necessary as Bayrou seeks to finalize his government composition, particularly amid such turbulent waters. His focus remains on stabilizing the national government through responsive policymaking, emphasizing cooperation among diverse political factions.
Looking forward, Marc Fesneau, President of the MoDem parliamentary group, mentioned, "Cela avance... la structuration des grands pôles ministériels est fixée," signaling some optimism about government organization, asserting efforts aimed at completing the ministerial appointments either Monday or, at the latest, by Tuesday, just before Christmas. The urgency implicit within this timeline hints at Bayrou's desire to swiftly transition out of this political quagmire and guide France toward more cohesive governance.
That said, the power dynamics within the new administration and its policy directions remain uncertain. Time will tell if Bayrou's collection of political figures can bridge the divides or if the pressures of French governance will prove too substantial to manage.
