France is on track to reach a population peak of 70 million by the 2040s, according to a new study released by the Institut national d’études démographiques (Ined) on March 26, 2025. However, this growth may be short-lived, with projections indicating a decline back to 68 million by 2070, nearly matching the current population of 68.6 million.
The study highlights a crucial demographic trend: while the birth rate in France is declining, the population is unlikely to decrease in the immediate future due to a positive migration balance. As of January 1, 2025, France's population has seen a modest increase of 0.25% over the past year, largely attributed to migration. In 2024 alone, the migratory balance contributed nine-tenths of this growth, adding 152,000 people to the population, while the natural balance—defined as the difference between births and deaths—only accounted for one-tenth of the increase, with 17,000 more people born than died.
Gilles Pison and Laurent Toulemon, the authors of the study, emphasize that without significant changes in fertility rates or migration patterns, France's population is expected to remain stable for the next two decades. "The positive migration balance would more than compensate for the anticipated decline in natural balance, meaning the population will not decrease for about twenty years," Pison stated in an interview with Sciences Avenir.
However, the authors also caution that after 2040, the number of deaths is projected to outpace births, leading to a potential population decline. This shift is attributed to a combination of factors, including the aging baby boomer generation reaching higher mortality ages and a notable decrease in birth rates. If the current fertility rate of 1.62 children per woman persists, deaths will surpass births as early as 2027.
Despite these challenges, the study suggests that if migration levels remain steady, the population could still rise to a peak of 70 million by the 2040s before gradually declining to 68 million by 2070. This scenario predicts a future population with a slightly higher ratio of men and fewer children, reflecting the aging demographic.
"If some are worried about a potential decline in population, there is really no need for alarm," Toulemon remarked, reassuring that the demographic shifts are manageable with proper planning.
One major implication of this demographic evolution is the increasing demand for services catering to the elderly. A report published in 2023 indicated that the number of French citizens aged 75 to 84 is expected to increase by 50% between 2020 and 2030, rising from 4.1 million to 6.1 million. Furthermore, the population over 85 will also see a significant increase of over 50% in the following decade.
This demographic shift presents both challenges and opportunities. To adequately respond to the needs of an aging population, the sector focused on elderly care estimates that nearly 400,000 new workers will be needed by 2030. This requirement underscores the necessity for society to adapt to changing demographics by ensuring adequate support and integration for migrants, who are viewed as a vital resource in addressing population needs.
As the study reveals, the interplay between migration and natural population change is critical to understanding France's demographic future. While the current trends suggest a stable population for the next couple of decades, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, influenced by factors such as fertility rates, migration patterns, and potential health crises.
In summary, France is poised for significant demographic changes in the coming decades, with migration playing a pivotal role in shaping the population landscape. The projections serve as a call to action for policymakers to prepare for the implications of an aging society while fostering an inclusive environment for migrants, who are integral to the nation’s future.
