On March 3, 2025, France's government unveiled a significant action plan aimed at revitalizing the management of public finances, prompted by alarming deficits recorded over the past two years. With the country previously facing deficits soaring to 6% of GDP, Economy Minister Éric Lombard and Public Accounts Minister Amélie de Montchalin addressed the urgent need for reform during their announcement, declaring, "C'est un vrai tournant dans le pilotage de nos finances publiques, qui se fera dans la transparence et le dialogue."
The newly proposed measures stem from the governmental experience at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, which revealed substantial deviations from initial budget forecasts. To combat such discrepancies and avoid any future public finance fiascos, Bercy, France's Ministry of Economy and Finance, is establishing multiple consultative bodies, most significantly, the formation of a public finance alert committee. This committee, scheduled to meet three times annually, will comprise representatives from both parliamentary commissions of finance and social affairs, as well as members from the Social Security agency and the Court of Auditors. The objective is clear: improve transparency on public finances and mitigate any unforeseen risks.
The first session of this alert committee is set to convene next month, where it will assess the state of public accounts and potential corrective measures. According to Amélie de Montchalin, the committee's mandate will allow it to "ouvrir la boîte noire de Bercy," emphasizing the need to bring forth any unscheduled expenditure overruns to Parliament's attention swiftly.
Alongside the alert committee, the government introduces what they're calling the circle of forecasters. This new body will include academic experts, representatives from the Court of Auditors, and members of France Stratégie, with the task of evaluating macroeconomic forecasts relating to growth, inflation, and employment. Lombard remarked on this new endeavor, highlighting the imperative of examining what would occur under the current financial structure without changes to social expenditure or tax revenues.
This action plan is not merely about approvals and projections; it serves as the government’s concerted effort to restore public confidence following the previous failures, as it attempts to navigate through tough economic realities accentuated by international tensions. Lombard stated during the conference, "Nous voulons ouvrir la boîte noire de Bercy pour conforter les conditions du compromis politique," alluding to the importance of transparency and accessibility of financial data.
The gap between predicted and actual budget outcomes has weighed heavily on the national agenda, and administrators have faced criticism over their handling of financial predictions, which led to the recent downgrade of France's sovereign credit outlook to negative by S&P. The agency's concerns reflect apprehensions around the government's sustained failure to meet its budgetary goals. Such missteps culminated in calls by significant political figures, including Pierre Moscovici, to bolster methodological rigor and independence from political oversight at Bercy.
During discussions about the newly launched plan, Lombard reiterated the truth of political accountability, saying, "Pour que les administrations puissent travailler de façon sereine, il faut les tenir éloignées de l’hubris du politique." This assertion encapsulates the intention behind the reforms: to detach the assessment process from political influence.
The objectives laid out by Bercy aim primarily to align future budget predictions more accurately with economic conditions, particularly as the country targets reducing its deficit to 5.4% of GDP by year’s end. Amid rising scrutiny from Parliament, especially with current investigations over previous discrepancies, the procedural groundwork laid by these committees offers more structured oversight.
The reformation of forecasting methodologies will simplify the reporting of deviations, debunking the notion of arbitrary fiscal planning. Public trust remains central to the government's initiative, and it is leveraging these changes to engage citizens actively. They have launched "Notre nation, nos finances", aiming to facilitate discussions on the state of public finances with the populace, hoping to build support and awareness around fiscal decision-making.
Through these measures, France aims to grasp the autonomy needed to address financial challenges amid external pressures, seeking to stabilize its economic outlook and reinforce public governance systems. The woes from past miscalculations serve as reminders of the unpredictability of fiscal management, stressing the necessity for improved forecasting, transparency, and accountability moving forward.
Looking toward the future, the current government hopes not just to avert financial shortfalls but also to endure climate and global uncertainties, with the intent to safeguard budgets for upcoming legislative actions.