PARIS (AP) — France’s president and prime minister managed to form a new government just in time for the holidays. Now, the hard part begins. With crushing debt, increasing pressure from the nationalist far right, and conflicts raging across Europe and the Mideast, challenges are mounting for President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Francois Bayrou following a tumultuous 2024.
The most pressing order of business is the passing of the 2025 budget. Financial markets, ratings agencies, and the European Commission are all calling on France to reduce its deficit to comply with EU rules, which limit national debt and aim to keep France’s borrowing costs from spiraling. France’s debt is currently estimated at 112% of its gross domestic product—a staggering figure exacerbated during the pandemic as the government provided aid to businesses and capped energy prices following the invasion of Ukraine.
After the collapse of the previous government, which was forced out primarily by opposition from Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally and left-wing legislators over proposed spending cuts and tax increases, Bayrou and newly appointed Finance Minister Eric Lombard face the task of revising the budget. Lombard, who's previously advised Socialist administrations, acknowledges the enormity of their challenges: “The political situation is difficult. The international situation is dangerous, and the economic climate is fragile,” he remarked upon taking office. He added, “The more we are indebted, the more the debt costs, and the more it suffocates the country.”
This newly constructed cabinet is France’s fourth government of the past year, underscoring the political instability as no party holds a parliamentary majority. The current members can only govern with support from lawmakers on both the center-right and center-left. Le Pen’s role was instrumental in unseeding the former government with her coalition’s no-confidence vote. Bayrou's consultations with Le Pen during the government’s formation signal her continuing significant influence, garnering anger from left-wing groups who previously garnered the most seats yet feel sidelined.
Macron’s resolve remains firm; he has stated numerous times he will maintain his presidency until the end of his term in 2027. Nevertheless, if the new government collapses shortly, political pressure may push for Macron to resign and call for early elections, especially with Le Pen's National Rally intent on driving his administration out.
Conversely, Le Pen is dealing with her own set of challenges, including possible legal trouble stemming from a March court ruling over alleged party financing improprieties, which could prevent her from running again. Within the cabinet, discussions around tougher immigration rules are underway, fueled by demands from the National Rally, but Bayrou aims to focus on the application of existing legislation.
Military funding is another pressing issue as tensions rise over security threats from Europe and pressure mounts from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump for Europe to strengthen its defense capabilities. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu, who has maintained his position, insists on the need to address “accumulating threats” against France, highlighting the urgency of military aid to Ukraine.
Looking to the immediate future, Macron aims for legislation to expedite reconstruction efforts for the cyclone-hit territory of Mayotte following the devastation from Cyclone Chido, which has resulted in 35 confirmed deaths and over 2,500 injuries. The humanitarian crisis continues to evolve, with many locals displaced and living under emergency shelters.
Meanwhile, the situation worsens for the French territory of New Caledonia, where recent resignations by pro-independence leaders have led to another government collapse, creating additional hurdles for Manuel Valls, the new overseas affairs minister, part of the newly appointed cabinet.
On December 23, France introduced its new cabinet, which includes prominent names such as Catherine Vautrin returning to her role as Minister of Labour, Health, Solidarity, and Families. Vautrin emphasized the importance of her portfolio and her commitment to addressing key national issues. Newcomer Yannick Neuder will serve as the minister delegate for health and access to care, tackling healthcare delivery challenges, including combating medical deserts and addressing the ageing population.
Neuder is stepping onto a stage rife with difficulties, particularly facing France's €18 billion social security deficit for 2024, which was introduced by the former Prime Minister. The newly appointed ministers are tasked with ensuring stability as the health system grapples with staffing shortages, medication inadequacies, and increasing demands for services, underlining the urgency for continuity within the chaotic political climate. “Our institutions urgently need budgetary visibility to continue fulfilling their public service mission,” stated the French Hospital Federation, as they prepare for the budget discussions for 2025.
With the new government's fate uncertain and numerous challenges on the horizon, the efficacy and durability of Macron’s administration will be put to the test as they navigate through national debt, social emergencies, and pressing political opposition from both the radical right and left.
