As security challenges rise across Europe, France finds itself at a crossroads regarding its military capabilities and its ability to lead collective defense initiatives within the European Union. French President Emmanuel Macron has sought to position France at the heart of European rearmament amidst a backdrop of growing apprehension toward both the United States and Russia. Following a trajectory that indicates diminishing American military support for Europe, combined with the escalating threat from Russia, the EU is pivoting toward increasing defense expenditures and pooling resources through shared defense projects among its member nations.
Despite Macron's ambitions to enhance French military stature, doubts persist regarding whether the French Army, ranked as the seventh strongest globally, can effectively spearhead a collective military response. According to annual assessments by Global Firepower, France holds the accolade of being the strongest military force in the EU, yet questions surround its operational capabilities amidst rising security tensions.
Since taking office in 2017, Macron has dramatically escalated France's defense budget, allocating €295 billion to the military programming law for the 2019-2025 period. This figure is set to surge to €413 billion for the 2024-2030 period—a 40% increase. However, despite these significant investments, French defense efforts appear to be playing catch-up, as highlighted by concerns raised by Senator Cedric Perrin, from the Republican Party and head of the Senate Defense Committee. He acknowledged the progress made but warned that current funding remains “insufficient to meet new challenges,” particularly in light of the comprehensive Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Currently, France's total active military personnel is approximately 200,000, along with 44,000 reservists, as per Global Firepower statistics. The ground forces include 225 Leclerc main battle tanks and 79 Caesar self-propelled howitzers, with naval capabilities boasting a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, four nuclear submarines armed with ballistic missiles, and about 15 frigates. The Air Force is complemented by around 197 combat aircraft while France maintains about 290 nuclear warheads as part of its strategic deterrence strategy.
While France has these formidable assets, significant gaps remain—most notably in ammunition stockpiles, which have reached critically low levels. In 2024, France aims to produce 100,000 155mm artillery shells, marking a substantial improvement over the mere 6,000 shells it produced annually from 2012 to 2017. Nevertheless, this effort pales in comparison to the number of shells fired daily by the Ukrainian forces, which averages around 7,000 shells. A 2023 report from the French National Assembly highlighted that existing ammunition supplies have dwindled to their “lowest levels ever,” raising concerns over sustainability in the event of prolonged conflict.
Interestingly, France boasts a robust military industrial complex, making it the world’s second-largest arms exporter, according to a recent report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. However, this strength in exports does not necessarily reflect the actual operational capabilities of the French Army. Analyst Emmanuel Dupuy, who heads the European Security and Forecast Institute, asserted that France's military supply chains have a structural imbalance, stating, “We have become the main weapon supplier in Europe through the sale of Rafale fighter jets and Caesar guns, yet we suffer from a lack of ammunition because we have lost the ability to manufacture it domestically.”
This discrepancy is echoed by Senator Perrin, who added, “France produces a lot of high-quality equipment, but that does not mean we are necessarily buying large quantities of it for our armed forces.” Dupuy concurred, suggesting a fundamental principle: “We cannot be an exporting power if we don’t supply ourselves with the materials we need for our security.”
Moreover, the French military industrial complex increasingly relies on international suppliers for strategic materials. For instance, Dupuy noted that French munitions manufacturers import propellant from Australia. To address this shortfall, on March 25, the French Minister of the Armed Forces, Sebastien Lecornu, and the Minister of Economy and Finance, Eric Lombard, launched a new production line for explosives by the company Eurenco, which specializes in gunpowder. This facility is expected to produce around 1,200 tons of propellant annually, sufficient to support the creation of roughly 100,000 artillery shells designated for Caesar guns deployed in Ukraine and other nations.
Nevertheless, experts warn that despite France’s military capabilities, significant deficiencies exist in various vital sectors. Dupuy emphasized the need for investments in heavy lift aircraft capable of deploying sizable numbers of troops and armored vehicles abroad. Another pressing gap is the lack of drones, which have become a crucial asset in modern warfare, particularly as demonstrated during the conflict in Ukraine. The need for enhanced monitoring capabilities to counteract cyber threats and electronic surveillance is also paramount, according to Dupuy.
He advocates that France, along with other EU nations, should not remain dependent on U.S.-made Patriot missile systems, adding, “We should not be beholden to Patriot air defense systems, but rather we need to develop our own European versions that ensure our strategic independence.”
Traditionally, French military doctrine has focused on expeditions rather than engaging in broad direct conflicts. Perrin highlighted that while French forces are theoretically designed to intervene across various conflict zones, their “modular” nature constrains operational capacity and limits engagement scope. He conveyed that France, like other European countries, lacks the ability to wage major conflict without reliance on NATO allies.
The collaboration across Europe in defense industries is still in its infancy. Dupuy remarked that the continent must improve “interoperability” among European armies, particularly regarding military purchases. He indicated, “We need a fewer variety of equipment types used within European armies—perhaps a common European aircraft rather than continuous competition among national projects.”
Reflecting on the prospects for the new French military initiative, Perrin expressed cautious optimism, stating that France “is heading in the right direction.” However, the present challenge lies in “finding the necessary budget.” The French Ministry of Finance recently announced plans to raise €5 billion in additional public and private funding to bolster the defense sector. Yet, pressure on French public finances continues to limit options for increasing military expenditures. Macron aims to gradually elevate military spending from 2% of GDP to between 3% and 3.5% within the next couple of years.
