Global fossil fuel emissions have reached unprecedented levels this year, according to new projections from the Global Carbon Project, which indicate emissions are set to hit 37.4 billion metric tons, marking a 0.8% increase from 2023. The surge has occurred against the backdrop of the COP29 UN climate summit currently happening in Baku, Azerbaijan, where leaders from around the world are convening to discuss climate initiatives amid rising anxiety about future climate policies, especially with the potential return of Donald Trump to presidency impacting US's commitment to climate action.
This increase is alarming, as it contradicts hopes for emissions to plateau or decline this year. Emission levels from all three main fossil fuels—coal, oil, and gas—are projected to rise, intensifying the already urgent climate crisis. Pierre Friedlingstein, the lead author of the study, emphasized the stark reality, "The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign of fossil fuel burning peaking. Time is running out to meet Paris Agreement goals—world leaders at COP29 must implement rapid and deep cuts to emissions to stand any chance of staying below 2°C of warming above pre-industrial levels."
They estimate fossil fuel emissions will account for approximately 41% from coal, 32% from oil, and 21% from gas, with China continuing to lead as the largest emitter. China's total emissions are projected to rise by about 0.2%. Meanwhile, the United States and European Union are expected to see slight decreases of 0.6% and 3.8%, respectively, and there are notable increases expected from India, estimated at around 4.6%.
The report also highlights concerning trends from land-use changes, such as deforestation, set to rise with emissions projected to hit 4.2 billion metric tons. This combined with fossil fuel emissions indicates total carbon emissions could reach an astonishing 41.6 billion metric tons, surpassing last year’s figures of 40.6 billion metric tons. These drastic levels of emissions contribute to devastating climate events, including back-to-back hurricanes, severe drought, and catastrophic flooding, which have become increasingly frequent and severe this year.
The rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, expected to reach 422.5 parts per million (ppm), pose significant risks, with growing concerns about breaking climate thresholds. Research suggests there is roughly six years left at the current rate of emissions before we face exceeding the 1.5°C warming limit established by the Paris Agreement, underscoring the need for immediate and substantial action.
Current efforts, including reforestation and technological solutions for carbon capture, have been deemed insufficient. Natural carbon sinks like forests and oceans are reportedly absorbing about half of all emissions, but these are increasingly strained by climate impacts. Despite growths in renewables and electric vehicle adoption helping to counteract some emissions, they are simply not enough to bring about needed changes rapidly.
With the 1.5°C climate target slipping ever more out of reach, experts are warning about the severe consequences of failing to take decisive actions. Glen Peters, research director at the Center for International Climate Research highlights this point, stating, "We are frustratingly close to peaking emissions. Renewables are growing strongly, electric vehicles are progressing, but it’s still not enough."
The COP29 summit focuses heavily on strategies to shift momentum toward meaningful climate actions; yet, with many countries lagging behind their commitments to emissions reductions, the future remains uncertain. Nations must rally together for transformative changes—if not, the global community could face irreversible damage to ecosystems, intensified weather events, and dire threats to human health and stability.
Given the rapid depletion of the global carbon budget, the time for effective and meaningful action against fossil fuel emissions is now. The findings from the Global Carbon Project serve as both desperate warnings and calls to action—a pivotal reminder of the challenges faced and the immediate necessities for global leaders striving to retain any hope of climate stabilization. The interconnectedness of fossil fuel reliance, climate commitments, and international relations plays a substantial role during this significant climate dialogue, holding the weight of the planet's future on leaders' decisions.
