Ontario's provincial election campaign is entering its final stretch, with new polling data showing the Progressive Conservatives (PCs), led by Doug Ford, still holding onto a substantial lead over their rivals. According to a recent poll conducted by Ipsos Global Public Affairs on behalf of Global News, the PCs are projected to secure 46 percent of the vote, significantly outpacing the competition. The poll indicates Bonnie Crombie's Liberals are positioned second with 25 percent, followed closely by the New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Marit Stiles at 21 percent and the Green Party, under Mike Schreiner, at eight percent.
Despite the seeming dominance of the PCs, the latest figures represent a slight decline from earlier points in the campaign, as Ford's party has dropped four percentage points since the beginning. Notably, both the Liberals and NDP have seen marginal increases, each rising by one point, and the Greens have gained two points. Darrell Bricker, the CEO of Ipsos, noted, “It looks at the moment like Premier Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party are cruising to a third majority government.”
The election has been characterized as one lacking the typical excitement, with many voters seemingly preoccupied with broader issues outside the provincial sphere, such as Canada-U.S. relations. Bricker described it as “the lowest heartbeat election” he has seen, emphasizing how difficult it is to get Ontarians engaged when larger national concerns dominate the conversation.
The poll suggests the PCs might even outperform their showing from the 2022 election, when they garnered 41 percent of the popular vote. Health care remains the foremost concern for 45 percent of Ontarians, where the Liberals lead by five points. Other significant issues include cost of living, lower taxes, the economy, and job creation, areas where the PCs are viewed more favorably.
Ford's campaign has centered around the theme of protecting Ontario and not ineffective measures against potential tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. His strategy, framed under the banner of "Protect Ontario," involves highlighting Ontario's economic interests and the importance of getting its resources to market efficiently. He proposed removing federal impediments to maximize economic potential, particularly around resource extraction.
On the campaign trail, Ford reiterated his commitment to expediting project approvals, particularly for mining operations within the mineral-rich Ring of Fire. He characterized these minerals as Ontario's “ace in the hole” to navigate potential economic challenges faced by tariffs. This focus on the Ring of Fire is part of Ford's broader economic plan to establish Ontario as a leader in electric vehicle manufacturing through mining.
During his visit to Northern Ontario, Ford announced significant investing plans aimed at enhancing First Nations engagement within mineral development. His government plans to allocate $70 million to help train First Nations workers, thereby fostering community involvement and job creation.
Both the Liberals and NDP have also rolled out their election platforms. The NDP has proposed $70 billion of new spending over the next three years with commitments to provide grocery rebates, boost capital gains taxes, eliminate Highway 407 tolls, and tackle housing shortages. Conversely, the Liberals have laid out $65 billion of spending focused on the basics of health coverage, education, and mental health, promising no new taxes.
The campaign has also been marred by controversies surrounding candidates from various parties, with the NDP facing internal strife and the Liberals defending candidates over past comments. Ford has similarly found himself defending party members, indicating the pressures candidates face as public scrutiny mounts.
The candidates are making final pushes across Ontario as the election date approaches. On one side, Ford continues to champion economic resilience and security, promoting his vision for greater economic empowerment throughout the province. On the other, Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie and NDP leader Marit Stiles are focusing on criticisms of Ford's governance, emphasizing the need for substantive change and immediate action on pressing issues like the healthcare crisis and affordable housing.
With only days left until voters head to the polls, analysts suggest the final week of campaigning is pivotal for all parties, particularly the Liberals and NDP. The Ipsos polling data hints at potentially more dynamic shifts as undecided voters begin to engage more deeply with party platforms and candidate profiles.
The election, set against the backdrop of significant issues impacting everyday Ontarians, creates high stakes for all involved. The Pennings of this election will resonate well beyond the ballots cast, potentially shaping the province’s approach to key challenges and priorities for years to come.