Florida's hurricane season has always been closely watched, especially as it approaches its end. With the formation of Tropical Storm Sara, now the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, residents are bracing themselves for what might come next.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), as of 1 p.m. Sunday, Tropical Storm Sara was 265 miles from Honduras, boasting sustained winds of 40 mph and moving west at 17 mph. The storm is anticipated to cause significant flash flooding and mudslides, primarily affecting Honduras over the weekend. Interestingly, the system had begun as Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 before being upgraded to tropical storm status.
The NHC has issued updates predicting the storm's path toward Central America, and as it continues through the Caribbean, the possibility of its impact on Florida looms large. Computer models indicate there is potential for it to reach the Gulf of Mexico. Yet, the specifics remain elusive: whether Sara will evolve as it approaches Florida and what strength it may acquire — whether it will be classified as merely a tropical low or ascend to hurricane status.
Even if the storm manages to strengthen, there's the cooling waters of the Gulf of Mexico to contend with. This could hinder its development compared to warmer Caribbean waters.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, officially running from June 1 to November 30, has already proven active, with 11 hurricanes and six tropical storms noted so far this season. Interestingly, November is notorious for cooler sea temperatures, which usually dampen tropical activity. Yet here we are, with predictions of another storm potentially making landfall late this month.
Speaking of landfalls, Florida has seen three hurricanes this year alone: Hurricane Debby, Hurricane Helene, and Hurricane Milton. Such activity is not common for November; with only three other hurricanes recorded making landfall during this month since official records began. The last were Hurricane Nicole, which struck the state on November 10, 2022, and Hurricane Kate on November 22, 1985. The only other hurricane to hit Florida was the Yankee hurricane on November 4, 1935.
This is where it gets particularly concerning. Sara has the potential to make four hurricanes hitting Florida this season, which would set off alarm bells, especially since major hurricanes Helene and Milton already racked up destruction earlier this year. The last time Florida faced three major hurricanes making landfall within the same year was back in 2004.
Ryan Truchelut, meteorologist at WeatherTiger, commented on this unique situation. He noted, "Total oceanic heat content of the Gulf has slightly increased over the last three weeks," highlighting the unusual circumstances of warmer-than-usual sea temperatures being conducive to storm development.
While the various tracking models have been fairly consistent, one can't dismiss the unpredictability of tropical systems. Besides, much depends on how long Sara remains over water and where it eventually heads. If it veers toward land too quickly, there’s every chance it could weaken.
Throughout history, hurricanes have displayed exceedingly varied behaviors, especially this late in the season. For example, there have been only four recorded landfalls of hurricanes within November, but much more activity can be noted among tropical systems during this time frame. A few noteworthy storms include Hurricane Nicole from 2022, which, though initially classified, ended damaging several regions and causing indirect fatalities.
On the wider stage of tropical activity, various storms like Hurricane Mitch, which formed in late October 1998, gained notoriety due to its excessive devastation across Central America even though it weakened by the time it reached Florida. Such instances draw attention to the continued unpredictability of storm systems as seasons progress.
The NHC’s monitoring continues as the potential for change lingers on the horizon. Updates are expected to flow diligently over the following days as meteorologists keep watch over Sara. The Florida populace is reminded to stay vigilant and prepared, as conditions can shift rapidly with any approaching storm.
With the hurricane season nearing its official end, awareness remains key. People are urged to stay tuned for emergency alerts to be adequately prepared should tropical storms like Sara pose immediate threats. The state's history of severe weather, combined with current conditions, serves as timely reminders of the importance of readiness.
