On January 31, 2025, the United Kingdom marks five years since it formally left the European Union, heralding both celebration and contemplation over the lasting impacts of this historic event. Following 47 years of membership, the UK exited the EU at 11 PM, which was midnight in Brussels, culminating years of debate, political strife, and major shifts across various sectors.
The day after Brexit, Great Britain entered an 11-month transition period to facilitate trade continuity, affecting diverse aspects of everyday life. Economists and analysts now reflect on how the ramifications of this decision have shaped trade relations and economic landscapes within the country.
One of the most significant outcomes of Brexit has been its impact on trade, particularly with the EU. Despite negotiating free trade agreements, initial assessments indicate the UK has experienced negative consequences since leaving the EU single market and customs union. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), forecasts suggest the UK’s goods and services trade will decrease by 15% long-term due to Brexit. Some studies even estimate UK exports could be 30% lower than they would have been under EU membership.
While larger firms may navigate post-Brexit bureaucracy more effectively, small businesses are facing hurdles, including non-tariff barriers and new paperwork requirements, which has hindered their competitiveness. Yet, there is positivity to be found; certain service industries, like advertising and management consulting, have recorded unexpected growth since 2021.
Immigration was another salient theme during the Brexit referendum, with the promise of greater control fueling support for leaving the EU. Since 2020, EU net migration has markedly decreased, due largely to the end of freedom of movement. Conversely, UK immigration from non-EU countries has surged, particularly through work and student visas. Initiatives such as post-study work rights have made the UK more attractive to international students, as universities seek to bolster dwindling finances—a trend compounded by regulatory pressures.
Travel has also transformed post-Brexit. While Britons can visit EU countries for up to 90 days without needing visas, the end of free movement has complicated travel logistics. Starting from 2025, new electronic travel systems will affect how UK citizens navigate borders, stirring concerns about potential delays and administrative burdens. The introduction of travel clearance programs like ETIAS for EU citizens visiting the UK is another layer of complexity.
Legal sovereignty—one of Brexit's core promises—is slowly manifesting as laws previously dictated by the EU start to fade under new UK regulations. Thousands of regulations were inherited as retained EU law, but the government is now considering selective revisions. Although changes have occurred like amendments to certain tax laws and the abolition of the ban on live animal exports, many regulations remain intact as the extensive review process continues.
Financial ramifications from Brexit are equally noteworthy. The cessation of contributions to the EU budget has freed up approximately £9 billion per year for the UK, yet public accounts reveal the UK continues to owe financial settlements stemming from the Withdrawal Agreement. The future of research collaboration within European frameworks also raised eyebrows when the UK re-entered the Horizon program, forecasting annual payments of around £2 billion, which could signal potential benefits for scientific sectors.
Public sentiment toward Brexit has evolved, with recent surveys indicating 55% of the UK populace reflecting on departure as the wrong decision, leading to calls from opposition parties for renewed ties with the EU. Amidst fears of economic stagnation and rising discontent, top politicians have reaffirmed the government’s objective to reinforce security partnerships and explore economic cooperation avenues, albeit with cautious reluctance toward rejoining the customs union.
Reflecting on five years of change, it’s evident Brexit continues to resonate within British society and its economy. The path of re-engagement remains uncertain, but as the country stands at another political crossroads, the debates around Brexit signify their relevance will persist, shaping the UK’s approach to Europe and the wider world.