On January 31, 2020, at 11 p.m. London time, the UK officially severed its ties with the European Union, bringing to fruition the result of the 2016 referendum where 52% voted to leave. Marking five years since this historic decision, the atmosphere is decidedly mixed. A new survey by YouGov reveals just 30% of Britons now believe leaving the EU was the right choice, contrasting with 55% who feel it was misguided. The discontent even extends to former Leave supporters, with one in six expressing regret over their vote, reflecting broader concerns about the consequences of Brexit.
Commenting on the economic ramifications, Anand Menon, the head of the think-tank UK in a Changing Europe, noted, "The impact has been really quite Profound. It’s changed our economy and our politics." The aftermath of Brexit has left the UK more divided than ever, with discussions around its future direction still dominating political discourse.
For businesses, the frustrations are palpable. Before Brexit, the UK exported goods worth £216 billion to the EU, whereas this has now shrunk to £187 billion. Imports have also seen a decline, falling from £309 billion to £301 billion, triggering significant changes across various sectors. Lars Andersen, owner of My Nametags, explained how he now routes EU-bound goods through Ireland to circumvent new tariffs and regulations, stating, "It has cost us money. We are definitely slower, and it’s more expensive. But we’ve survived." On the other hand, Julianne Ponan, CEO of Creative Nature, expressed sorrow over missed opportunities: "We’ve lost four years of growth there. That’s the sad part."
The economic forecasts continue to show gloomy predictions as the UK faces potential long-term losses; the Office for Budget Responsibility estimates UK exports and imports could be around 15% lower versus if it had remained within the EU. While Brexit proponents argue for newfound opportunities, David Henig from the European Centre for International Political Economy warned, "The big players aren’t so much affected... But the mid-size players are really struggling to keep their exporting position."
Political ramifications have been equally significant. Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party and current Prime Minister, previously affirmed his stance against rejoining the EU during his term. Instead, he has signaled intentions of resetting relations with the bloc, yet stressing incremental improvements rather than radical changes. A spokesperson from his office confirmed, "The Government’s approach to working with the EU is to strengthen our ties on security and defence, improve the relationship on trade and investment and work with the EU to identify areas which are in the UK’s national interest."
Over the past five years, Britain's departure from the EU has not manifested as either supporters or opponents envisioned. Initially driven by the promise of reducing immigration, Brexit has ironically resulted in higher numbers entering the UK, as new visa systems have facilitated international labor influx.
Polls reveal changing sentiment among the British populace; many now reflect upon Brexit as possibly a mistake, yet the idea of rejoining the EU appears far-fetched, still shadowed by the raw emotions stemming from the separation's tumultuous nature. Even with renewed dialogues between the UK and EU, reflections on past divisions are strong. Menon summed it aptly, saying, "The world is a far less forgiving place now than it was in 2016 when we voted to leave."
While the discussions may evolve, the scars of Brexit's aftermath serve as reminders of what was lost and gained over these past five years. Each side will continue to grapple with the realities of this unforeseen decision as the future of UK-EU relations remains tenuous at best.