Five years have passed since the United Kingdom officially left the European Union, marking one of the most significant political and economic shifts for the nation since World War II. The departure was completed at 11pm on January 31, 2020, and since then, the reverberations of this monumental decision continue to shape the UK politically, socially, and economically.
Recent polling data from YouGov, released to commemorate this milestone, reveals a stark change in public sentiment. Currently, 55% of Britons believe leaving the EU was the wrong decision, with only 30% holding steadfastly by Brexit. Interestingly, among those aged 18 to 24, the disapproval rate rises considerably, with 75% saying they regret the decision to part ways with Europe. This growing disillusionment prompts questions about the durability of the promises made during the referendum.
Economically, the aftermath of Brexit has not unfolded as many proponents had suggested. Originally, the Leave campaign heralded the idea of increased trade opportunities outside the EU, leading to promises of full control over national borders and regulations. Yet, five years later, official figures indicate Brexit is projected to reduce the size of the UK's economy by approximately 4%, amounting to losses of around £100 billion. The Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated long-term import and export volumes could drop by 15%, impacting the public finances significantly.
Trade has become increasingly complicated, with smaller businesses, particularly those trading with EU countries, facing cumbersome red tape and delay. According to Dr. Mike Galsworthy from the European Movement UK, Brexit has cost the UK economy £115 billion annually and continues to have adverse effects on trade intensity and public services.
Health care emerged as another focal point during the referendum, with the claim Brexit would free up £350 million weekly for the NHS. The reality, as seen over the past five years, demonstrates no substantial evidence of such redirection of funds. Instead, the UK has faced surges in staff shortages exacerbated by reduced EU immigration coinciding with the end of freedom of movement. Post-Brexit, net immigration figures soared to record highs, seemingly contradicting the very concerns pushed by the Leave campaign.
The political dynamic has shifted as well, with the recently elected Labour government favoring closer ties with the EU, rather than adhering to the original isolationist plans of their Conservative predecessors. Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey referred to the Brexit deal as “an utter disaster for our country,” urging for immediate negotiations toward establishing new customs agreements with the EU to bolster growth.
This sentiment aligns closely with data from the aforementioned YouGov poll, which shows significant support for rejoining the EU Customs Union—55% of respondents back this notion—signaling mounting pressure on the government to reevaluate its Brexit stance, potentially altering its course to mend relations with Europe.
The frustrations were echoed by Green MP Ellie Chowns, who expressed strong advocacy for rejoining the EU, reflecting widespread public sentiment favoring reevaluation of Brexit’s consequences. She firmly stated, “full membership of the EU remains the best option for the UK.”
While there exists political pressure from various factions to reevaluate ties with the EU, the government appears reluctant to reconsider its position. Dame Priti Patel, the shadow foreign secretary, commemorated the anniversary by stating Brexit was about honoring the will of the British people, claiming benefits have been reaped since the nation left the EU.
Nonetheless, the looming reality remains: the cost of living crisis exacerbated by Brexit has birthed skepticism concerning projections for economic prosperity outside the EU. Economic promises of lower taxes, reduced living costs, and increased trade deals have proven unfounded. Trade with the EU has contracted significantly, with less than half of the supposed benefits materializing as the UK struggles to negotiate advantageous trade agreements with major partners.
Looking back, the illusion of economic independence is clouded by the stark reality of economic interdependence. Brexit's promise of taking back control now seems overshadowed by red tape and increasing friction at borders. Fluctuations around immigration—once touted as control regained—have ironically led to record inflows of non-EU immigrants, raising eyebrows and frustration among those who voted for reduced immigration levels.
The anniversary serves as both commemoration and contemplation—a moment for reflection on the costs and promises of Brexit. With changing public sentiment calling increasingly for return to previous agreements and relationships, the UK finds itself at crossroads, necessitating dialogue and perhaps reconciliation with Europe. Polling indicates overwhelming support for greater alignment with the EU, yet political pathways remain murky as leaders navigate the partial realities of Brexit alongside pressing domestic concerns.
It remains to be seen whether the current government, marked by its ties to the past, will recognize the shifting tides of public opinion and the necessity for constructive engagement with the EU. Today, the conversation surrounding Brexit and its impacts is more important than ever, with the UK facing economic challenges and social ramifications long after the vote was cast, making this anniversary not merely historical, but also indicative of the path forward for the nation and its place on the European stage.