The final polls leading up to the 2024 German federal election indicate some significant shifts among the political parties, highlighting both declining and increasing trajectories as candidates make their last pushes for voter support. According to the latest INSA poll, the ruling Union party, led by CDU candidate Friedrich Merz, is positioned to secure the election, albeit with just 29.5 percent of the vote — reflecting general discontent with the current political climate.
While the Union emerges as the most likely winner, this percentage is of concern, considering it's below the 30 percent mark and falls short of their expectations from earlier stages of the campaign. Merz went on record stating, “The existing sentiment for change must be reflected at the polls,” emphasizing the need for each vote as all eyes turn to the outcome on Sunday evening.
On the other hand, the SPD, traditionally one of Germany’s major parties, finds itself struggling with only 15 percent of the vote share, experiencing a 10-point drop since the last election in 2021. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has portrayed himself as being confident about re-election chances, has faced considerable challenges maintaining party support amid electoral shifts.
Meanwhile, the Greens, who have been projecting optimism about their potential elevated role, now lag behind as well, standing at just 12.5 percent — significantly lower than their anticipated performance. The party’s frontrunner, Robert Habeck, is aware of these challenges as he attempts to rally support leading up to the elections.
Conversely, the extreme right-wing AfD, with candidate Alice Weidel, has seen remarkable gains, now polling at 21 percent — nearly double its showing from the last elections. This meteoric rise showcases the party's capacity to tap directly to voter dissatisfaction, pulling many undecided voters away from traditional parties. The Left party has also staged a revival with 7.5 percent support, signaling renewed relevance after barely scraping past the five percent threshold last election.
Among the smaller parties, the situation is precarious. Both BSW and FDP are on the edge of failing to secure representation in the Bundestag, with polls placing them below the five percent necessary. CDU politician Thorsten Frei stressed the urgency of mobilizing supporters, noting, “The polls are motivation to go all out these last days of campaigning,” emphasizing the need for every last effort to solidify their presence.
With campaign events happening up to the final moments before the polls, parties are aggressively competing for undecided voters. The Union concluded its campaign with high-profile rallies, including one held at the Löwenbräukeller Munich, where speeches were delivered by both Merz and influential CSU leaders. The SPD had its major campaign event the night prior, emphasizing Scholz's outreach as he continues visiting constituency areas.
What remains critically important is how these final hours of campaigning, coupled with polling data, will shape the real outcome. Although the Union has consistently led the race, the question of coalition formation is rife with complication. A coalition with SPD would suggest razor-thin margins, adding pressure to achieve tangible results among potential partners.
The political climate surrounding the election is unmistakably charged. The parliamentary outcome will set the stage for future governance, affecting not just the successful parties but also determining the fate of those who fail to cross electoral thresholds. The stakes could create significant political upheaval if unpredicted alliances come to fruition or if smaller parties disrupt traditional coalitions altogether.
Finally, as Election Day approaches, every party recognizes the importance of voter mobilization and engagement. The atmosphere both within campaign meetings and public gatherings reflects strong emotions and the pressing urgency of the moment — encapsulated succinctly by Carsten Linnemann, CDU Secretary General, who noted, “It is up to every vote now.”