Tampa, Florida, here they come. A trio of No. 1 seeds and a 2-seed punched their tickets to the 2025 women's Final Four. Defending NCAA champion South Carolina will play Texas on Friday, April 4, 2025, at 7 p.m. ET, followed by UConn vs. UCLA at 9 p.m. ET. Both games are on ESPN. Which teams will advance to Sunday's national championship game? Our experts weigh in, unanimously agreeing on a favorite for one of the semifinals but split on the other Final Four showdown.
What to know about UConn? The No. 1 factor that helped UConn reach the Final Four: Paige Bueckers. After relatively poor performances in the Huskies' three regular-season losses, including 9-of-22 shooting in the first matchup with USC in December, Bueckers had three consecutive games with 25-plus points this March Madness. That gave her eight in the NCAA tournament during her four Final Four runs -- tied for the second most by any player in the past 25 years, per ESPN Research. And it's not just Bueckers' scoring that makes her the nation's best player. She added six assists Monday and an emphatic block of Trojans guard Talia von Oelhoffen. At least one more big game awaits for Bueckers in her last try for an elusive NCAA championship, but she couldn't have done anything more en route to Tampa.
UConn's key against UCLA: matching up with deep, physical frontcourts. The Huskies are relatively inexperienced in the post, where they start two freshmen in Sarah Strong and Jana El Alfy, the latter in her third year on the roster but first on the court. That duo will be tested by 6-foot-7 UCLA star Lauren Betts in Friday's semifinal, with either South Carolina or Texas looming should UConn advance. None of the other three teams in Tampa can match the Huskies' perimeter firepower with Bueckers, Strong, and Azzi Fudd. If UConn can play relatively even in the paint, Geno Auriemma & Co. will cut down the nets for the first time since 2016.
What to know about UCLA? The No. 1 factor that helped UCLA reach the Final Four: the 6-foot-7 presence of Lauren Betts, whose stat line Sunday (17 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 blocks) qualified -- remarkably -- as an off night. After all, Betts had recorded consecutive 30-10 games in the round of 32 and Sweet 16, shooting a combined 29-of-33 from the field. Betts' emergence as an unstoppable force in the paint helped the Bruins level up after knocking on the door repeatedly. UCLA had reached the Sweet 16 six times in the past decade under Cori Close, including the Elite Eight in 2018, but this is the first time the Bruins have advanced to the Final Four since 1979 -- prior to the NCAA sponsoring women's basketball.
Led by Hall of Famer Ann Meyers, UCLA won the AIAW national title in 1978 and returned in 1979. The Bruins also used last year's loss to the Tigers as an important measuring stick and changed the result this time. UCLA's key against UConn: continuing to focus on "going 1-0." That has been Close's talking point for avoiding looking ahead or stressing the magnitude of the moment for a program that hasn't been this far in any of its players' lifetimes. Against UConn, UCLA will be at a significant experience deficit against Geno Auriemma, Paige Bueckers, and the Huskies. But the Bruins will surely treat Friday's national semifinal as just another game for the team that earned the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament.
UConn vs. UCLA predictions: Charlie Creme predicts UConn 82, UCLA 78; Alexa Philippou predicts UConn 72, UCLA 70; Michael Voepel predicts UCLA 75, UConn 73. UConn coach Geno Auriemma once famously remarked that his early 2000s UConn teams were the best in the country because he had Diana Taurasi and the others didn't. While he probably wouldn't be as brash today, a similar refrain might be true with Paige Bueckers. As good as Lauren Betts has been, Bueckers has been better. Bueckers has been historically good with her 25-plus-point games in UConn's run to its 16th Final Four in 17 years (and her fourth). Her previous three trips produced no national championships. Bueckers' great play combined with a sense of urgency in her final season will be enough for the Huskies to win a close one.
Now, let's take a look at Texas and South Carolina. What to know about Texas? The No. 1 factor that helped Texas reach the Final Four: the Longhorns' composure won Monday's Elite Eight game. Texas was a top-seeded team for a reason, and the Longhorns played like it to punch their ticket to Tampa. The Horned Frogs entered the game riding momentum on the excitement of beating Notre Dame in the regional semifinals. Texas could have played tight because the pressure was on it to win. The Longhorns were 7.5-point favorites. Instead, the Longhorns did what they needed to do when they needed to do it.
Texas' key against South Carolina: scoring enough points. Monday's contest with TCU was an ugly offensive game. Facing South Carolina for the fourth time this season, the biggest question isn't whether the Longhorns can stop the Gamecocks but if Texas can score enough points to beat them. In their three previous outings (two in the regular season and then in the SEC tournament title game), Texas averaged 53.7 points and only broke 60 in one of them. That was the meeting the Longhorns won. Teams have been able to muck it up with South Carolina, but disrupting the Gamecocks' offense and beating them are two different things. To pull that off, Texas' offense is likely to come from Madison Booker, its leading scorer. When these two teams met in the SEC championship tilt, Booker struggled, scoring 10 points on 4-for-13 shooting. Texas will need more from the sophomore forward to earn a berth to the national championship game.
What to know about South Carolina? The No. 1 factor that helped South Carolina reach the Final Four: it comes down to the program staples Staley has established in leading the Gamecocks to three national championships. She instills a mentality that South Carolina will play to the buzzer and make fewer mistakes when the stakes are highest. And for the most part, the Gamecocks have done that this season, especially late in their wins over Maryland (Sweet 16) and Duke (Elite Eight). Staley also has adjusted to different mentalities from her Final Four teams over the past decade. She knows that a lot of heat and fire from her doesn't work as well with this year's group as it did with some past teams. Staley's ability to hold high standards but still be flexible is a big part of why we will see South Carolina in the Final Four again.
South Carolina's key against Texas: getting more from its younger players. The Gamecocks were able to outlast Duke despite scoring just 54 points and not getting much from their young stars. Sophomores MiLaysia Fulwiley and Tessa Johnson and freshman Joyce Edwards combined to score just nine points on 4-of-14 shooting with seven turnovers. As reliable as South Carolina's starting vets -- Kitts, Feagin, Bree Hall, Te-Hina Paopao, and Raven Johnson -- are, it seems likely the Gamecocks will need their young players to contribute a lot more to get two wins in Tampa.
Texas vs. South Carolina predictions: Charlie Creme predicts South Carolina 62, Texas 59; Alexa Philippou predicts South Carolina 63, Texas 52; Michael Voepel predicts South Carolina 65, Texas 60. When Texas and South Carolina face off on Friday, there will be no surprises. The fourth meeting between the two best teams in the SEC will decide the conference's representative in the national title game. Like their first three matchups, two of which were won by South Carolina, expect this one to be dictated by defense. They are the two best defensive teams in the country. Only one opponent of each in the NCAA tournament scored more than 60 points in a game. And in the previous meetings between the Gamecocks and Longhorns, South Carolina's 67 points on January 12 was the scoring high. When these squads met to decide the SEC tournament title the first week of March, the Gamecocks completely shut down Texas 64-45. This one should be closer, but give South Carolina the edge to advance to Sunday's title game.
